中国手机市场商机有多大

今年初，中国将手机牌照由“审批制”改为“核准制”，只要投资资本额超过2亿人民币、有实质技术和3年以上制造经验，就有机会取得手机内销牌照。

由于许多欧美厂商早在2002年之前就拿到手机生产牌照，这次的开放影响有限，当初审批制真正卡到的是一些小手机品牌。

中国这个号称全球最大的手机战场，到底有多大的商机？根据IDC的数据，2003年中国手机市场销售量高达7900多万部，2004年更增长到8600万部。这数字还不包括看不见的黑市市场，白牌手机（没有品牌手机）销售数字也有2000～3000万部左右。今年3月，中国移动电话用户数达到3．49亿，而且每个月以新增470万户的速度成长。

中国手机产能失控，像不定时炸弹

然而，在看似机会无穷的光鲜外表之下，中国手机产能的失控，却是一颗不定时炸弹。2004年中国手机产能预估高达2．4亿部，整整比市场需求量高出2～3倍之多。

市场竞争激烈，连外商都不得不退出竞争。日前，阿尔卡特才和中国国产品牌TCL的合资公司拆伙，退出竞争激烈的手机市场。“未来，能够存活的手机制造商会愈来愈少。”诺基亚高级副总裁赵科林（Colin Giles）不讳言地说，中国可能是全世界竞争最激烈的市场，因为随时都得面对超过上千机种的竞争。

在极度竞争下，光是2004下半年就有许多对手被淘汰出局（例如中科健、易美），未来手机牌照再度开放，也只是将竞争对手的数量带回几年前的情况而已。

“机会利润”空间消失

1998～2003年之间，排名前10名的手机厂商，应该都赚到一波“机会利润”的市场钱。

不过，随着国际品牌大厂诺基亚在2004年大打价格战之后，机会利润的空间消失，造成许多手机厂商退出市场。价格战开打，让许多二线品牌业者的压力更大。

据统计，2003年中国本土手机品牌市占率一度达52．9％，2004年却降至44％。连2003年以15％市占率成为中国手机市场霸主的波导（Bird），其市占率也在2004年骤降至8．9％。

面对中国市场急速的变化和挑战，外资品牌手机该如何投资与应对？市场龙头诺基亚反败为胜的经验，或许可作为参考。根据研调机构GFK的统计数字，去年诺基亚在中国手机市场的市占率，每个月都是第一名，而且在121个大城市的调查报告中，销售量排名前10名的手机款式，诺基亚就占了9名。这样的成绩，让诺基亚去年在大中国区（包含台湾、香港）一共卖出710万部手机，相较于2004年第一季来说，2005年第一季销售更成长了69％。

根据IDC的统计，诺基亚2003年第二季在中国大陆的市占率11．2％，排名第三；2004年第四季市占率18．1％，排名第一，还领先第二名11．8％的摩托罗拉将近7％。

要进军中国手机市场，得先学3堂“渠道经济学”。

进军中国3堂课之一：渠道是王

进军中国手机市场的第一堂课：渠道是王。2002年下半年，来势汹汹的中国本土品牌手机，凭借强大的在地化优势和销售手段，许多手机厂商早已熟悉家电的渠道，藉由“乡村包围城市”的成功策略，迅速抢攻手机市场，给了当时的国际品牌一个出其不意。

“当时中国品牌的崛起，给了我们很大的警惕。”诺基亚大中国区营运商及3G发展副总裁许培桢表示，当时诺基亚察觉到，在既有的一级城市外，其实还有很大的市场要去耕耘。许培桢说，中国人做生意很多地方须透过关系，区域就像当地地头蛇，如何跟他们打好关系，建立分销系统，将决定市场竞争力。

渠道若经营不善，可能会是危机， “迪比特”就是一例，它原本渠道采取区域经销的方式，后来为了降低经销成本，改由省级分公司直接出货跳过商，结果造成既有商反弹，加上不熟悉当地渠道文化，使手机销售大受影响。

进军中国3堂课之二：多渠道制，拉近顾客距离

进军中国手机市场的第二堂课是：以多渠道的制度，拉近与消费者之间的距离。

花了18个月才慢慢了解中国市场的诺基亚高级副总裁赵科林表示，初期因中国市场太大，诺基亚花了2年才完成渠道的布建和行销方式的确立。

从2002年，诺基亚开始了销售管道的全面铺设。在渠道策略上，采取“四条腿走路策略”的全方位渠道。从最初的只有一家部级总，逐渐发展到省级（区域）、系统商渠道（电信业者）、直攻客户（国美、苏宁等大卖场）等多种销售模式和管道，不但降低销售层级，并且开始向三四级城市前进，建立起完善的销售网路。

“以前我们离开消费者太远了，”诺基亚中国投资公司总裁何庆源表示，“以前透过部级总的方式，往往手机卖给什么对象，完全不知道，现在渠道的压缩和扁平化，让我们离市场更接近。”

3年前的诺基亚，只有北京、上海和广州3个分公司，现在则在成都增加了第四个分公司，透过80个区域级的办公室，就近服务近100个商的需求。

进军中国3堂课之三：IT管理，即时掌握市场

进军中国手机市场的第三堂课：用IT管理资讯，即时反映市场需要。顾客一进店面，面对至少800多种不同的手机时，手机厂商该如何突显自己的品牌？同时，厂商又该如何掌握各个省份、300多个不同城市、3万多个终端销售点的竞争，以及第一手资讯和销售状况？答案是：运用手机加上IT系统。

许多大卖场里不但有销售小姐，每家手机厂商还派驻专属的促销人员，负责吸引顾客到柜台促销手机。诺基亚不但有6000名促销人员，更将专属的资讯软件系统，建制在每一位促销人员的手机内。这样一来，每天来自全国各地的促销人员，就可以将当天的销售数字与其他竞争对手的资讯，透过GPRS直接传回诺基亚的资讯系统，随时掌握市场第一手资料。

透过资讯管理，可掌握住渠道的神经脉动。诺基亚副总裁许培桢表示，透过即时的数据，不但可以掌握市场脉搏，更能了解消费者的习惯和需求。比方说，当中国的销售旺季来临时，公司常不知道何时才真正开始，以前可能都是通过研究顾问公司的研究资料才能知道。如今，透过直接的资讯系统，可以清楚了解销售起飞的时机，开始准备促销。许培桢表示，太早促销会浪费资源，太晚会让竞争对手抢得先机，所以，运用正确的资讯，掌握住时机点非常重要。

“顾问公司预估的数字，往往还没有我们的准。”诺基亚中国投资公司总裁何庆源自信地说，往往许多分析公司只预估到200多个城市的销售情况，可是诺基亚的数字却已经到直达300多个城市，不但自己很清楚销售数字，还能给客户更多的支持。

拿到手机内销权不等于赚钱

面对新机会的来临，想进入中国手机市场的外资品牌该如何运作？手机对许多中国消费者而言，已经变成一种炫耀式产品，所以要先建立品牌形象，而不是用低价抢市场。

拿到内销或许只是拿到一张入场券而已。当拼价格的市场竞争不再，如何掌握渠道和消费者的需求，成为品牌胜出的关键。

Early this year, China changed its mobile phone licensing from an ″approval－based system″ to a ″verification－based system″, in which anyone would have the opportunity to attain domestic sales license for mobile phone as long as he has a capital investment exceeding RMB200 million, possesses essential technology and over 3－year manufacturing experience．

Being known as the world＇s largest mobile phone battleground, how much business opportunity does China have in this market after all? According to IDC data, the sales volume of Chinese mobile phone market reached 79 million in 2003, and this figure further increased to 86 million in 2004． By March this year, the number of China＇s mobile phone subscribers had reached 349 million, and are still growing at a rate of 4．6 million per month．

Out－of－Control Production Capacity of China＇s Mobile Phone Just Like a Non－Time Bomb

However, under a pretty appearance with seemingly unlimited opportunity, China＇s out－of－control production capacity of mobile phone acts like a non－time bomb． In 2004 China＇s production capacity of mobile phone was estimated as high as 240 million, which was 2 to 3 times higher than its market demand．

The fierce market competition even forced some foreign manufacturers to withdraw from the competition． Recently, Alcatel just split with its Chinese partner TCL and withdrew from the fiercely competitive mobile phone market． ″There will be less and less surviving mobile phone manufacturers in the future,″ said Mr． Colin Giles Senior Vice President of Nokia． China might be the most fiercely competitive market in the world, since one may face with the competition from over a thousand mobile phone models any time．

How should the foreign mobile phone vendors invest and cope with the rapid change and challenge of Chinese market? As the No．1 player in this market, Nokia＇s experience to turn its failure into victory may serve as reference． According to a survey agency GFK＇s statistics, Nokia＇s market share ratio in the Chinese mobile phone market always ranked the 1st place every month last year; and in a survey report on 121 large cities, among the top 10 sales of mobile phone models, Nokia accounted for 9．

3 courses on ″channel economics″ must be studied first in order for one to charge into the Chinese mobile phone market．

Course ＃1 for Getting into China: Channel Is the King．

In the 2nd half year of 2002, China＇s native branded mobile phones broke in upon the market in full fury． With their strong localized advantage and sales measures, as well as the long－established familiarity with the channels for home appliances by many of these mobile phone manufaturers, via a successful strategy of that ″village attacks city″, they secured quickly their mobile phone market shares and gave then international players a surprise．

At that time Nokia realized that there are still a large market to cultivate besides the existing ones in level I cities． As Mr． Xu Peizhen, vice president of Nokia Greater China Service Provider and 3G Development put it, many things should go through guanxi (meaning relationship in Chinese) when doing business with Chinese． Those regional representatives are just like local bullies． It will determine one＇s market competitiveness whether one can setup good guanxi with them and establish one＇s marketing channel．

Course ＃2 for Getting into China: Multi－Channeled Representative System to Get Close to Customers

Mr． Colin Giles, Senior Vice President of Nokia,who spent 18 months before understanding gradually the Chinese market, stated that it took Nokia 2 years to get its channels laid out and marketing methods established in the start－up period due to the mega size of Chinese market．

Nokia started the overall arrangement for its sales network from 2002． For its channel strategy, it took an all－round channeling approach called ″4－legged walking strategy″． It developed gradually from only 1 state－level general agent at the very beginning, to multiple sales models and channels that includ provincial－level agents (regional agents), system providers (telecom carriers), direct clients (appliance hypermarkets like Gome and Suning), etc． The company had not only lowered its sales layers, but also started to proceed to level III ＆ IV cities, so as to build a sound sales network．

3 years ago, Nokia had only 3 offices in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, and now the 4th office has been added in Chengdu． The company is providing services via its 80 regional offices to nearly 100 representatives in the vicinity．

Course＃3 for Getting into China: IT Management to Reflect Market Instantly

In many hypermarkets, in addition to the sales clerks, each mobile phone vendor also sends specialty marketing personnel to attract customers to the counter to market its products． Nokia not only has 6000 marketing personnel, it also has its specialty information software system built in the mobile phone of each marketing personnel． In this way,every day the marketing personnel from all over China are able to transmit the sales figures of the day and information of other competitors directly back to Nokia＇s information system via GPRS, so that the company can grasp the first－hand info of the market．

Nokia＇s Vice President Xu Peizhen said, that via instant data, the company can not only feel the pulse of market, but also understand consumer＇s habit and demand． For example, the company often didn＇t know about when the high season of sales in China really began, and could only know from the data of the research and consulting firms． While nowadays, via its direct information system, thecompany can know clearly about when the sales take off and thus starts preparing for promotion． Mr． Xu said that to promote too early would result in waste of resources, while too late would let the competitors to act ahead． Therefore, it is essential to have good timing by using correct information．

(Translated by Yang Xu)