中国汽车业半年考

矛盾、冲突、博弈展现在当下中国汽车行业的方方面面，在这样的环境中，想要取得成功，

需要随机应变与坚定决心

奥地利EFS汽车咨询公司总裁

入夏以来，烈日炎炎。高温之下，很多在华的汽车企业都放了“高温假”。高温假是个好机会，可以借机回顾和反思上半年的得失，同时展望下半年即将到来的挑战，而这些闲暇时间也是调整心态重温古人智慧的好时机。比如我们可以静下心来读读《易经》。

作为一本强调变化和流动的书，它并非在封闭概念或静态框架中讨论问题，而这对今天的中国汽车工业颇有价值。

《周易》描绘了64卦，我认为“讼”最能代表中国汽车行业的现状。后人如此解读“讼”卦——讼，争也，冲突。虽有利可图，但要警惕戒惧。其事中间吉利，后来凶险。根据解释，“讼”卦是一个警告——在内外冲突日益膨胀的趋势之下，危险即将来临。

这一警告似乎并不是完全脱离现实的，最近，矛盾正如瘟疫般蔓延整个汽车行业。

政府的政策正处于矛盾之中——汽油与可再生能源一道享受着政府补贴；当大城市竭尽所能去遏制汽车交通拥堵时，另一些省市却持续利用经济刺激方案，投资于基础设施——特别是道路的建设。城市人对环境污染、交通拥堵、出行费用增加的抱怨并没有阻止他们购买SUV——而这种车型，在设计之初就没有将“低排放”、“高油耗”或者“城市生态性”放在考量的首要位置。

由于中国汽车制造商开始成为“世界工厂”，外资品牌正继续“坐在家中吃掉中国的市场份额”。根据宏观经济数据显示，中国GDP增长率下降至7.5%，这与今年上半年汽车销售数字的激增形成鲜明反差。今年上半年，中国的汽车销量平均增长了12%。政府试图稳定产值，专家也强调合资并没有使合资双方——外方及中方重新考虑他们的扩张计划，而合资也并没有为中国带来更新的车型以及更高的研发生产能力。

特别是对于国内的汽车企业而言，矛盾、冲突、博弈展现在方方面面：如何在超过120家汽车企业的市场中保持知名度；当与同行在出口市场竞争时，又要如何保持在国内的销售量；如何及时地建立研发体系并严格控制成本……

而这个卦也给我们一个提示，告诉我们在这样的环境中，想要取得成功所需的特质：随机应变与坚定决心的结合。按行内的话来说，则是有着进取的、一致的产品策略，以及优化的企业结构——这也正是未来的市场领军者的成功要素。

为了更好地了解在这种内部冲突之下，一个精心设计的战略结果为何与预期完全相反，花一点时间来回顾最近一段时间几个众所周知的案例是值得的。

一些车企选择在过去几年开展雄心勃勃的扩张计划。典型案例便是奇瑞。上了一课的奇瑞，刚刚向市场引进它最新的一款产品，这也是奇瑞近3年来发展上战略转型的成果，在这一过程中，奇瑞更加注重品牌的塑造、设计水平的提升以及质量的优异。

另一方面，一些国内汽车企业一直遵循稳健的市场策略。长城——一家规模不大的、私人独资民营企业，它只关注它的核心产品——SUV以及中档轿车，并借此在销量高涨的SUV细分市场上获得不错的战绩。然而，长城目前的长项——专注于核心优势而非多元化，却可能变成它的薄弱点：如果市场趋势或政府政策在短期内大幅改变，长城可能因缺乏多元化产品及技术，而无法做出及时的市场应对。

有一个正在实验中、用来规划产品组合的方法——模块化的产品组合。它可以放大两种策略的优势，同时最大限度地降低风险。不同组件的组合可以实现产品所需的多样性，这就增加了产品在市场中的机会，与此同时可以最大限度地使用有限核心技术使内部协调地增长，并最大限度减少研发和资金需求。这正是“随机应变，路线不变”。

特别是在当前形势下，大多数汽车企业想要在内忧外患的汽车市场中扩大产能，而一个模块化的生产方式可以最大限度减少资金需求，同时可以灵活满足需求并最终套现为一个“成功故事”。

由于政府奉行适度增长以及行业内部人士呼吁的需求合理化，大多数汽车企业的扩张策略只能被理解成一个赌局——赌对方会犯下错误，在对方市场领域里抢占份额，并轮流在销售排行里排名起伏。成为世界上最大与最有活力的汽车市场同样是一个赌局，而这顶“第一”的皇冠仍将空置，直到市场达到成熟。

对于车企而言，在当前环境中，第二次机会是稀少与昂贵的：往往需要整个技术升级或探索新的市场，这并不是所有汽车企业能够负担得起的，因此谨慎而周密的规划是必需的。

Reflections on the current state of the domestic automotive industry

As a book that characterizes changes and flows ， I find the I Ching and its hindsights particularly valuable for the automotive industry in China today

Summer holidays are the right time to step back from and reflect on the highlights of the first half of the year as well as look ahead on the upcoming challenges. These days bring also a good opportunity to re-visit ancient sources of wisdom with the required state of mind.

As a book that characterizes changes and flows rather than closed concepts or static frameworks， I find the I Ching and its hindsights particularly valuable for the automotive industry in China today. Out of the 64 hexagrams contained in the book， the one that best represents the current situation of the industry is in my opinion number 6： 訟 / Sung （Conflict）

Let’s follow the advice and take a halt halfway through the year.

In its most conservative interpretation， this hexagram is a warning on the danger that comes with an expansive disposition in a situation of internal or external conflict. It might not be completely out of place to take note of this advice， as conflicting trends seem to plague the automotive industry recently.

Government policies are in conflict： Oil is still being subsidized， but so are renewable energies. While big cities take measures to curb off car traffic， small provinces continue to take advantage of stimulus packages to invest in infrastructure， and particularly roads. Citizens’ complaints on pollution， traffic jams and raising running costs haven’t prevented them from favoring SUVs， vehicles that， with all their virtues， certainly aren’t designed considering low emissions， fuel efficiency or urban rationality as their priority.

As Chinese makers start to qualify as global agents and valid alternatives abroad， foreign brands continue to eat up market share at home. The macroeconomic data， down to 7.5% YoY GDP growth， does not match with the surge of car sales figures of the first half of the year， with an average +12% nationwide.

Government attempts at stabilizing output and expert calls on consolidation haven’t led OEMs （both foreign and Chinese） to rethink their expansive plans， with new models in the pipeline and production capacity on the rise.

In the particular case of domestic OEMs， conflict materializes in the form of a variety of challenges： how to maintain visibility within a market where over 120 OEMs operate； how to protect domestic sales while competing for export markets； how to build up know-how and capacity timely while keeping a strict eye on costs...

Fortunately this hexagram also gives us a hint of the required personality traits to succeed in such an environment： a combination of deep cunning within and fixed determination outwardly， or in our jargon， an optimized corporate structure combined with an ambitious and consistent product positioning， which is a good description of the aspects that the next market leader would have to master in order to succeed.

It might be worth to re-visit a few known examples of the recent past， to better understand how under such conditions of external conflict， the results of a well-designed strategy can be pretty much the opposite from what they are logically expected to be.

Some domestic OEMs opted in the past years for ambitious expansion plans. A very good example is Chery， by 2008 in a dominating position in the domestic market. It tried to capitalize on this tactical advantage by bringing over 20 new models to the market in a very short period of time， which covered most sectors and price ranges. As it turned out， the market was not ready to absorb such an amount of novelties. It is arguable that even the average customer got lost among its multiple brands， as too many different products for different sectors were presented simultaneously. Lesson learned， now Chery is introducing to the market its latest product， the result of three years of development work and fruit of its strategic transformation， with an emphasis on identity， engineering excellence and quality.

On the other hand， some OEMs played the conservative card. Among them， Great Wall -a small， private-owned enterprise- is probably the best example of how to achieve expansion through perseverance. It stayed focused on its core products （SUVs and middle-range sedans）， achieving excellent results due to the -for many， unexpected- growing market demand of SUVs. Probably they gained visibility in this multi-faceted and ever-changing domestic market due to their fidelity to a small set of recognizable and quality-tested products that happened to be on top of the pyramid of customer needs. As a result， Great Wall even faced a production bottleneck， unable to cater for the growing demand. Expansion measures are on the way， and with a planned capacity of 1.5 million vehicles per year and 63，800 new hires， the company will practically double its size by 2015. Nevertheless， its current strength （focus on core strengths instead of diversification） can turn into its weak point later on： in case the market trends or government policies shall change drastically in the short term， they might lack the product diversity and technology to react timely.

There is a tested approach to planning a product portfolio that capitalizes the strengths of both strategies while minimizing the risks： a modular product portfolio. Different component combinations achieve the desired product diversity that allows opportunity growth， while the extended use of a limited number of core technologies harmonizes internal growth and minimizes R&D and funding requirements. Cunning within， determined outwardly.

Particularly in the current situation， with most OEMs expanding production capacity while conflicting factors pull the automotive market into uncertainty， a modular approach to production can minimize funding requirements while providing the required flexibility to cash out of eventual sales “success stories”.

As the government pursues moderate growth and industry insiders demand rationalization， the expansive tactics of most OEMs can only be understood as a bet on each other’s mistakes and a fight on each other’s market share， as they take turns to raise and sink in the sales rankings.

What is in stake is becoming the reference for the largest and most dynamic automobile market in the world， and the crown will be still vacant until market maturity is reached.

In such an environment second opportunities are rare and expensive： they often require a throughout technology upgrade or the exploration of new market niches， and not all OEMs are in the position to afford this. Careful planning is a must. The long-awaited consolidation of the automotive sector might be about to materialize. In any case， I bet the second half of 2013 is going to bring no little excitement！