“免费退货”不免费

Despite reports of trashed stores and disorderly crowds， Black Friday shopping excursions in 2016 are actually dwindling.1 Preliminary data from Thanksgiving weekend indicates that both net sales and shopper visits to brickand-mortar stores2 fell in 2016 and 2015， and that in-store sales fell by about $1 billion. As those with Black Friday fatigue move to shopping online from the comfort of their homes， they’re attracted not just by deals and promises of free shipping， but also by the increasingly common safety net3 of free returns.

But neither of these services is really free. Much has been written about how much “free” shipping actually costs retailers， and as the ability to return goods at no cost becomes an increasingly normal part of online shopping―particularly during the holidays―that service too is becoming more burdensome for merchants.

A survey by the National Retail Federation found that the return rate for all merchandise purchased around the holidays is two percent higher than the average rate during the rest of the year. That’s especially burdensome for online retailers whose holiday sales figures are climbing.

For online shopping， the return rate is estimated to be much higher in general， but particularly around the holidays. “The annual retail return rate is around 8 percent， but can reach up to 30 percent for e-commerce sales， especially in categories like apparel4，” Tobin Moore， the CEO of Optoro， a company that specializes in returns， said in an email.

Optoro handles returns for companies in the interest of reducing waste. The process of collecting， assessing， and reshelving returned goods is often so costly for companies that items are instead thrown out or sold to stores that liquidate5 the products. Optoro collects these returned products， and then its employees repackage and repair the products to either be sent back to retailers， or―for products the company no longer wants―to be resold to wholesalers6 or discount websites.

Optoro is one of a handful of companies that try to reduce the cost and complexity of returns. The main challenge for these companies is helping retailers fix what they see as a broken system， with bad data， overly complex logistics， a messy network of resellers， and fear that frustrated customers won’t send products back due to bad return experiences in the past.

According to Vicky Brock， the CEO of Clear Returns， a U.K.-based company specializing in returns technology， many retailers are only now starting to think about optimizing returns in the logistical sense. Her company， though， is focused on using artificial intelligence to predict and prevent returns in the first place. “The causes of returns are a complex interplay7 of product， customer， and marketing， and it needs big data and a sharp analytical focus for retailers to understand and act on the information that will allow them to reduce the costly cycle of returns，” explains Brock. Further， Brock says that most solutions to retailers’problems have been technological， geared toward8 simplifying the supply chain， providing more detailed information about returns， and liquidating returned goods.

“Returns are a costly business， but a crucial one， if retailers want to earn and hold onto a loyal， motivated shopping base. It will continue to grow in correlation with9 the rise in online consumer spending，” says Ryan Kelly， the senior vice president of sales， strategy， and communications at Genco. That means that the returns business is no longer an afterthought10 for retailers， because a large majority of customers tend to come back to stores they’ve had good return experiences with.

The gap all of these companies are trying to fill is the one between high customer expectations and costly execution. On the retailer’s side， the end of Black Friday madness is just the beginning of a long， expensive period of return madness， a norm they themselves created and now must maintain in order to keep customers happy.

M管有关商场一片狼藉、人群混乱不堪的报道仍然屡见不鲜，2016年“黑色星期五”大采购事实上正在降温。感恩节周末的初步数据显示净销售额和实体店光顾率在2016和2015年都有所下滑，而店内销售额下降约10亿美元。随着顾客疲于黑色星期五抢购，他们更愿意待在舒适的家里进行网购，吸引他们的不只有特价和免费送货的承诺，还有越来越普遍的免费退货保障。

然而这些服务并非真正免费：已有不少文章阐述免费送货实际会让零售商消耗多少成本，而随着能够免费退货愈发成为网购的常态（节假日尤其如此），这一服务也让商家压力倍增。

美国零售联合会开展的一项调查发现，节假日期间所有商品退货率要比全年其他时间的平均退货率高2%。这对于节假日销售额飙升的网上零售商而言负担尤为沉重。

一般而言，网购的退货率要更高，在节假日期间尤为突出。“年度零售退货率大约在8%左右，但电子商务销售的退货率高达30%，特别是服装类的商品。”一家专门处理退货的公司Optoro的首席执行官托宾・穆尔在一封邮件中说道。

Optoro给其他公司处理退货是为了减少浪费。将退货商品集中、评估、重新摆上货架对于企业而言通常成本太高，因此企业要么将这些商品丢弃，要么转售给商店清仓处理。Optoro集中这些退货商品，由员工将其重新包装并且进行修补，然后返还给零售商，而那些企业不想要的商品则被转售给批发商或者折扣网站。

Optoro是试图降低退货成本与繁琐程度的少数几家公司之一。这些公司面临的主要挑战是帮助零售商修复他们眼中那个已经损坏的系统：不良数据、过于复杂的物流、混乱的分销商网络，以及害怕失望的顾客由于过去退货体验糟糕而不愿将商品退回。

Clear Returns是一家位于英国的专门研发退货技术的公司。该公司首席执行官维基・布洛克认为，许多零售商现在才开始思考从物流的角度优化退货服务，而她的公司则致力于利用人工智能，从一开始预测和防止退货的发生。“退货是由商品、顾客与市场营销之间的复杂交互而产生的，倘若零售商想了解能让他们减少昂贵退货流程的信息，并据此做出行动，必须要有大数据和敏锐的分析焦点才行。”布洛克解释道。此外，布洛克表示，大部分针对零售商的问题所提出的解决方案都是技术性的，旨在简化供应链、提供更详细的退货信息以及处理退货商品。

“如果零售商想要赢得并守住忠诚、主动的顾客群体，那么退货是成本高昂但至关重要的一环。退货将继续随着网购的兴起一同增长。”Genco公司销售、战略与沟通高级副总裁莱恩・凯利说道。这意味着零售商开始提前考虑退货服务，因为绝大多数顾客会再次光顾退货体验良好的商家。

所有这些公司努力弥合的是顾客的高期望与高额执行成本之间的鸿沟。从零售商的角度来说，疯狂黑色星期五的结束仅仅是漫长且昂贵的退货狂潮的开始。退货成为一种常态是由他们自己一手造成的，而如今必须将其保持下去让顾客满意。

1. excursion： 短途出行；dwindle：减少，缩小。

2. brick-and-mortar store： 实体店。

3. safety net： 安全保障。

4. apparel： 衣服，服装。

5. liquidate： 清算，变卖。

6. wholesaler： 批发商。

7. interplay： 相互作用。

8. gear toward： 面向。

9. in correlation with： 与……相关。

10. afterthought： 事后的考虑或想法。