通用､大众受挫中国

容易赚钱的好景不再

大众汽车与通用汽车都是抢先登陆中国的汽车巨头｡通用于1997年在上海成立合资企业,大众更在21年前就进驻中国｡一直以来,它们支配着中国汽车市场,但现在却碰上了劲敌｡

根据市场研究机构CSM WORLDWIDE的估计,韩国现代汽车在推出价位13600美元的伊兰特,一炮打响中国市场后,与去年同期相比,今年第一季在中国的销售量激升156%｡广州本田汽车推出10360美元的飞度后,销量也增加了76%｡而中国本土品牌奇瑞车厂,也凭着售价3600美元的汽车,业绩增长42%｡

对比现代､本田､奇瑞的亮眼成绩,大众和通用就黯淡多了｡大众汽车在中国的市场占有率从2001年的40%跌至去年的不到20%,,今年第一季的销售量更暴跌近2/3｡同一时间,通用汽车上海厂的业绩也下降了35%,它在中国市场的获利惨跌80%,只剩下3300万美元｡

出现这种情况的原因其实很简单:几年前,中国市场的汽车买主大多是国营企业,它们不在乎价钱,而今天的买车族,则主要是对价钱“斤斤计较”的个人｡但除此之外,通用和大众还要面对更深层的问题｡它们虽因率先进入市场而享有高关税保护之利,但高关税使它们不重视必要的成本削减,还迫使它们接受严格的限制｡譬如中国方面规定,大众必须为它在中国的两个厂设立各别的分销网络,通用应将重心置于高价位车等等｡相比之下,有关部门对本田和现代的干预就少得多｡至于奇瑞,更是全无此类困扰｡此外,新进驻的厂商,也在市场研究上做得较踏实｡以伊兰特为例,就有适合中国较崎岖路面的强化底盘,还有免提手机装置,以争取中国热爱手机的消费者｡

随着中国市场潜能迅速增长,竞争也将加剧｡奇瑞在今年4月的上海车展上展出了好几种新款,现代也计划在明年推出3款新车｡福特打算再投入10亿美元,在南京设新引擎厂,在重庆增设新生产线｡日产也计划增加250个商｡面对这样的态势,通用与大众正全力应战,其中最引人瞩目的行动就是更换它们在中国的管理高层｡两家公司也在强化小型车业务,并且宣布将大举削减成本,呼吁更多供应商将厂房移入中国｡

在新对手极具野心的挑战下,竞争无疑会更加激烈,对通用和大众来说,过去在中国容易赚钱的好景已经不再｡

通用遇上大麻烦

事实上,通用的麻烦远不止于此,就连它今年第一季亏损11亿美元的事实也不过是其问题的冰山一角｡在庞大退休金和年金给付的包袱下,美国通用汽车公司每销售一辆汽车必须支付1600美元的额外成本｡

自2000年以来,通用的市值已经损失了74%,汽车销售上频传败绩｡投资不足使它在科技与设计上跟不上脚步,导致价格上无法对抗韩国人,品质上对抗不了日本人,性能上更输给了欧洲人｡以今年推出的庞蒂克G6为例,只有基本的四速传动与廉价的塑料内装,面对丰田的佳美､本田的雅阁或日产的Altima,庞蒂克自然不是对手｡在丰田､日产等对手夹击下,上一季就连美国本土市场上通用的销售额也跌了5.2%｡市场占有率不断下降,导致通用亏损不断增加,美林分析师认为,一旦通用的市场占有率低于25%,情况将急剧恶化｡

目前,通用已经陷入了制造成本高于售价的负增长窘境｡在一般情况下,处于如此困境的公司可以采用紧缩､裁员的方式渡过难关,但通用却很难这么做,因为根据与工会的协议,除非支付巨额罚款,否则它不能关闭工厂或解雇工人,通用今天的困境,有相当一部分出于此,而通用工会的强势更是业界闻名｡从另一个角度来看,作为汽车巨头的通用70多年来在汽车销售方面从来没有屈居人后,全球第一的心态已经深植这家车厂的基因中,要它大刀阔斧采取精简缩编的策略,简直不可能｡

回头来看丰田､日产与本田这些成功的车厂,许多做法和通用完全不同,它们将研究经费集中于少数车款,加入最新特性和科技,在低成本､没有工会包袱的工厂制造,并且在创新方面不遗余力｡数字说明一切,去年,通用的资本与研发开支为70亿美元,但丰田高达153亿美元;通用在北美有89种车款和8个部门,丰田仅有26种车款和3个部门｡在美国,丰田每年每种车款平均卖出8万辆,而且平均每3年重新设计一次,通用只卖出5万辆,而且近4年才设计一次｡

通用前执行长斯隆曾说过这样一段话:“一家汽车制造业者,无论规模多大,或根基多深,若是冥顽不化,不能求新求变,都将受到市场严惩｡”当时斯隆谈的是竞争对手亨利・福特,但这番话今天同样适用于通用｡不过,通用汽车在短期内还不至于破产,因为它拥有198亿美元的现金､债券以及基金可用,当中还不包括83亿美元的银行融资｡但如果通用不能大幅度改变当前的做法,这些钱不出几年就会耗尽,届时难免大难临头｡通用高层已经意识到问题的严重性,陆陆续续推出一些改变,比如计划关闭两家车厂,以缓解生产过剩的问题,但力度显然不够｡

那通用究竟怎么做才能健全发展呢?它应该至少将组装厂减少5个,将北美产能从目前的年产510万辆减少到400万辆,而且应该在必要时解雇工人,让员工依靠政府的失业救济｡一旦获利能力提升,它才能在研发上增加投资｡另外,通用应该将车款减少1/3,可以由雪佛兰经营卡车和平价市场,由土星凭借设计优势负责行销昂贵车款,还应该重新打造凯迪拉克,凭先进科技主攻豪华车市场｡

During the Shanghai Auto Show in late April, Volkswagen and General Motors Corp. put on a brave face. At Volkswagen＇s 50,000-square-foot stand, car buffs could sample tropical fruit, salmon, and chocolate in the VIP room while ogling the new 200-horsepower Golf GTI and the Audi A6L--a China-only version that＇s four inches longer than the standard A6 to make the backseat roomier for execs with drivers. At GM＇s display, models in slinky outfits posed beside the chiseled 3.6-liter Cadillac CTS, the new Chevrolet Aveo compact sedan, and-to give Chinese buyers a taste of GM＇s former grandeur--a ＇59 Cadillac Eldorado.

But all the flash in the world can＇t hide the challenges the two companies face in China. Both came early to the mainland--GM formed its Shanghai joint venture in 1997, while VW arrived 21 years ago--and quickly dominated the market. But now they＇re getting trounced by new entrants offering smaller, cheaper cars. Led by the success of its Elantra compact, starting at $13,600, Hyundai Motor Co.＇s China unit sales soared by 156% in the first quarter over the same period last year, according to market researcher CSM Worldwide. Guangzhou Honda Motor Co. sold 76% more cars as buyers snapped up its $10,360 Fit. And domestic champ Chery＇s sales climbed 42%, driven by the explosive response to its $3,600 QQ. VW, meanwhile, has seen its 2001 market share of 40% tumble to less than 20% last year, as car sales plunged by nearly two-thirds in the first quarter. GM＇s unit sales from its Shanghai operation--its biggest China venture--dropped 35% in the quarter, and its overall profits in China plummeted 80%, to $33 million.

The reason for the shift is simple. Just a few years ago most auto sales were to state-owned companies that didn＇t worry much about price. Today most buyers are individuals who want the best deal for their money. And rumors that Beijing is considering a tax on vehicles with big engines are only accelerating the trend. ″Now the common people are buying cars,″ says Yale Zhang, head of CSM＇s Shanghai office. ″They want affordable, small ?眼vehicles?演, of good quality and with a good brand.″

The problems at GM and VW, though, go deeper than just the change to more modest cars. As first movers, the two benefited from high tariffs that kept out imports and allowed them to milk the market for immense profits. But the tariffs also allowed them to avoid necessary cost-cutting. And they faced cumbersome restrictions from Beijing. Volkswagen, for example, had to develop a separate distribution network for each of its two China manufacturing operations. It was ″a mistake of the past,″ says Bernd Leissner, president of Volkswagen Group China. And Beijing demanded that GM focus largely on the expensive Buick Regal. Honda and Hyundai, by contrast, have been able to get into China with far less meddling from Beijing, while locals such as Chery have seen little interference from bureaucrats.

There＇s more competition coming, too. Capacity in China is expected to grow by as much as 30% this year. Chery showed off a range of new models at the Shanghai show including a sporty concept car called the S16. Hyundai plans to introduce three models to China over the next year and intends to invest $1.1 billion by 2008 to triple its annual production capacity, to 600,000, from this year＇s 200,000. Ford Motor Co. is planning to invest $1 billion in a new engine plant in Nanjing and a new production line for its four-door Focus sedan at an existing factory in Chongqing. Nissan Motor Co. wants to add 250 new dealerships, to bring its total to 400, and hopes to boost sales to 350,000 cars by 2007, up from an expected 140,000 this year.

In response, both GM and VW are moving to revamp their operations, most notably by replacing top management in China. VW announced in April that Winfried Vahland, currently deputy chairman of the Board of Management at subsidiary Skoda Auto, will take over this summer for Folker Weissgerber, its board member responsible for China. China head Leissner is preparing to retire this year. At GM, long-time China Chief Philip Murtaugh, who over saw the flagship Shanghai venture from the start, stepped down in March.

Both GM and VW are looking to beef up their offerings of smaller cars. VW already sells its $9,000 Golf and $12,000 Polo in China and is planning at least two new models annually. VW CEO Bernd Pischetsrieder, though, says the company doesn＇t want to get into a price war that would destroy margins. ″Market share ?眼in China?演 is important for us, but not at any price,″ he told shareholders at VW＇s annual meeting in Hamburg on Apr. 21. And GM is pushing its sub-S8,000 Chevy Spark--a car that, GM says, Chery copied with its QQ. (Chery declines to comment on the case; a lawsuit on the issue is pending). Unit sales of the Spark tripled in the first quarter, although they remain less than 25% of QQ volumes. For its part, GM predicts double-digit sales growth this year, saying market share even inched up in the first quarter.

Both GM and VW have outlined ambitious cost-cutting programs, and both are urging more suppliers to produce in the mainland as well. The competition, though, is sure to increase as the newcomers keep chipping away at the early leaders. China used to be an easy game. Not anymore.

(By Dexter Roberts )