Low Carbon Technology Assessment and Planning

Abstract. This paper aims to analyze the planning method of low carbon technologies. It is a follow up to our previous analysis of sustainability assessment of low carbon strategies concerning economic， environmental and social terms. Construction sector in Chongming Island， Shanghai is analyzed as a case study. Eleven main building energy saving technologies are evaluated， and CO2 emission reduction amount and required building areas in 2030 in Chongming Island are set by using Decoupling Theory and Goal Programming method. The minimum emission reduction cost is found as 7.87×108 RMB under low carbon scenario and 9.52×108 RMB under ideal scenario. Planning analysis result also show that the low carbon scenario is possible to meet as the required building area is around 20% of the estimated building area in 2030. The ideal scenario will require more intensive energy saving technology application as the building area requirement is found around 40%.

Key words： low carbon technology； sustainability； planning

Introduction

In the process of low carbon transition， strategies that are not only reducing GHG emissions but also sustainable are needed， which means they are not compromising other environmental priorities and legal obligations while being low carbon （HM Government， 2009）. Some low carbon strategies are considered to be unsustainable because they do not sufficiently factor in economic， environmental， and social impacts （Azapagic， 2004； Labuschagne， 2005）. In our previous research， an assessment framework was established for low carbon technology concerning both the GHG emission reduction and sustainable development criterion. Indicators of sustainability encompassing economic， environmental and social aspects are designed to meet technologically sustainable requirements in the building sector （Huang， 2012）.

Concerning the planning methods of low carbon technologies， our literature review find the usually used methods are goal programming， which are commonly used in the field of industrial planning （Beccali et al.， 2009）. There is no specific analysis for low carbon technology planning.

In the case of China， as for the GHG reduction pressure， low carbon industrial transition is one essential part that needs policy action. With its rapid development， the building sector is estimated to experience an explosion in the next decade. This paper is a follow up to our previous sustainability evaluation analysis of low carbon technology. In this paper， we will discuss the planning method of selected technologies. The results of this application will be then be discussed in detail.

Evaluation Method

Evaluation method is established based on the sustainability criteria suggested in the MATA-CDM， which is already discussed in our previous analysis （Huang， 2012）. The designed sustainability assessment indicator for low carbon technologies of building sector is shown in Table 1.

Planning Method

CO2 emission reduction amount and required building areas in 2030 are set by using Decoupling Theory and Goal Programming method. Following is an explaination of how these two methods are used.

（1）Decoupling Theory

In public utility regulation， decoupling refers to the disassociation of a utility’s profits from its sales of the energy commodity. When referring to low carbon development， decoupling means the disassociation between emissions and economic growth. Den indicates the CO2 emission increase 50% in the relative decoupling scenario and 0% in the absolute decoupling scenario （Den and Duan， 2004）.

（2） Goal Programming

Goal programming is a branch of multi-objective optimization， which in turn is a branch of multi-criteria decision analysis， also known as multiple-criteria decision making. Linear programming is one kind of goal programming method for determining a way to achieve the best outcome in a given mathematical model for some list of requirements represented as linear relationships. Linear programs are problems that can be expressed in canonical form： Max Z（x）or min Z（x）=[Z 1（x），Z2（x），…Zp（x）]， in which X is the decision vector，X= [X 1，X2，…，Xn]；AX≤b and X≥0 ， they are the constraints which the objective function is to be optimized.

Evaluation and Planning for Chongming

Information of Chongming Island

Chongming Island lies against the northern shore of the Yangtze River and is an alluvial island formed by silt carried along the river. It is the third largest island in greater China at 1，041.21 km2. The 25.5 kilometer Shanghai Yangtze River Tunnel and Bridge join the island to Shanghai in 2009. The island will be connected to Jiangsu Province via Chonghai Bridge.

According to the government development plan， Chongming is aim to be built into a center for tourism， ecology， scientific and technological research， serving as a bridge linking the Yangtze River Delta and the north. In view of the high speed development trend， Chongming is accounted as a suitable case study for low carbon industry transition plan. Construction industry is selected as the study object， as it is one of the most potential industries for CO2 emission reduction.

The total building area in Chongming Island is 3.5×107 m2 in 2010， in which around 3.0×107 m2 is the public building， and 3.2×108 m2 is residential building （Yearbook of Chongming Island. 2004～2009）. The building energy saving condition is out of optimum in Chongming Island. Buildings meet the energy saving standards is very low. For public buildings， the rate is around 15.34%， and in residential buildings， the rate is only around 9.3%. Availability of renewable energy in public buildings is around 1%， as for residential buildings， the rate is far more less.

Technology Evaluation

The criteria and utility functions are shown in table 2. Quantitative criteria such as microeconomic efficiency， energy saving potential and GHG emission reduction are evaluated using interpolation algorithm method. Qualitative criteria are assessed according to utility valuation.

Building energy saving technologies selected in our analysis are seven commonly used ones. Their final sustainability scores are listed in Table 3.

References

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[3] Building Industry Development Plan of Chongming Island. 2010

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[10] Yearbook of Chongming Island. 2004-2009