寻找下一个超级潜力股

人民币一旦升值将带动新产业趋势

人民币升值压力越来越大,这不仅是中国经济的大变革,也是金融投资市场的重要题材,预料人民币升值及中国内需崛起两大趋势,将是指引投资方向的明灯｡

股神巴菲特的漂亮一役

看升人民币的题材,将成为未来几年亚洲乃至整个大中华地区最大的资本市场趋势｡从升值的趋势着手,堪称最重要的投资原则,其所引发的中国需求,也将带动新的产业趋势｡

2000年网络泡沫化之后,亚洲企业迅速崛起｡在亚洲企业不断壮大的同时,中国市场俨然成为推动亚洲经济成长的重要推手,只要搭上中国需求成长列车,它们就有机会成为世界级企业,在未来总市值的增长上,也是令人特别期待｡

2003年初,SARS侵袭中国,就在股市最低迷的时候,美国股神巴菲特却大举买进中国石油天然气股票,一口气买了23.48亿股,占该公司在香港H股发行量的13.5%,平均每股成本为1.68港元｡此后,在中国需求带动油价大涨的趋势下,中国石油天然气的股价和业绩顺势扶摇直上｡去年该公司大赚1029亿元人民币,成为中国大陆､香港､台湾获利最高的公司,股价大涨至5.15港元｡按此推算,巴菲特在账面上大赚76.3亿港元,再加上今年中国石油天然气所分派的股息,股神还可入账5.8亿港元,此举堪称巴菲特近年来最佳的投资｡

很明显,过去两年中国需求带动的原物料大涨行情,使中国石油天然气这类原物料股获益匪浅,而下一个阶段的投资方向,就要看人民币升值带来的效应｡

中国保险业受益最多

汇丰控股近年来把目标瞄准中国市场,接连投资在中国金融业和保险业,包括交通银行(汇丰控股持有19.9%)､平安保险(汇丰持有10%)以及上海银行｡到2006年底,中国金融市场全面开放,势将成为兵家必争之地｡不过,相较于银行业,寿产险业的投资潜力更大,尤其三档在香港上市最具代表性的寿产险股:中国人寿､平安保险和中国人民财险｡中国人寿因在香港上市,还在美国发行ADR,财报必须通过香港和美国证监单位审核,可信度还高于中国A股｡

人民币升值,最大的受惠者之一就是寿产险公司,中国的保险市场才刚刚发展,也具有中国需求成长的动力｡根据去年的年度财报显示,中国第一大寿险公司――中国人寿,纯利达到71.7亿人民币,高于市场预期,再加上该公司的总资产达3749亿元人民币,在长期趋势上,有进一步走升的空间｡其他如平安保险､中国人民财险等,也具备同样的特质｡

从拥有众多人民币资产的角度来看,中国移动､中国联通､中国网通､中国电信也是值得注意的目标｡尤其中国3G执照开放在即,移动通讯普及率日益上升,加上中国政府又将主导电信产业的重新整合,自有利于未来的发展｡

公共事业股跟着水涨船高

除此之外,在中国具有独占性,且不易被取代的产业,也具有长期看涨的潜力,如机场､码头,甚至其他公共事业的上市公司｡我们可以发现,近年来虽然中国A股长期不振,但上海机场的股价却长期走高,从2001年的5.923元人民币一路涨到18.11,迄今仍不断创新高,反映出中国航空市场正在起飞｡上海机场这家A股上市公司,直接控有虹桥机场和浦东机场,自从浦东机场开航后,其股价就没有跌过｡

我们也可以看看在香港H股上市的北京首都机场｡它目前的规模虽然比不上上海机场,但随着2008北京奥运会的来临,北京首都机场正在扩建中,未来业绩和股价的成长潜力更值得期待｡

中国航空市场正在起飞,将成为全球第二大航空市场｡未来中国对机场的需求,当然是有增无减,也是无可取代｡机场､港口､高速公路等公共事业股,已纷纷在中国大陆或香港上市,配合人民币升值,必然越来越火热｡

There is an increasing pressure on RMB to revaluate, which will not only result in a significant reform in China＇s economy, but also constitutes a major topic of financial investment market. Two trends will serve as lights to guide the direction of investmen---the expectations for RMB to revaluate and for China＇s domestic demand to rise.

A Good Deal of Warren Buffet

In early 2003, even though China＇s stock market was at its most stagnant time due to the SARS striking China, Warren Buffet bought into stock of PetroChina Co. Ltd. (PetroChina) aggressively, which totaled 2.348 billion shares, accounted for 13.5% of the company＇s H shares issued in Hong Kong, and cost HK$1.68 per share on average. After that, as China＇s demand drove the oil price to soar, the stock price of PetroChina went up steeply and so was its performance. The company made a tremendous earnings of RMB102.9 billion last year, therefore became the most profitable company in Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, with its share price skyrocketing to HK$5.15 per share. According to calculation based on this, Warren Buffet would earn a fortune of HK$7.63 billion on book. Moreover, the dividends distributed by PetraChina this year will bring an additional HK$0.58 billion to Mr. Buffet; thus this can be regarded as his best investment in recent years.

Evidently, the raw material stocks such as PetraChina have benefited greatly from the enormous rise of raw material prices driven by China＇s demand in the past two years, while the direction of investment for the next period will depend on the effect brought about by the appreciation of RMB.

China＇s Insurance Industry Will Get the Most Benefits

HSBC Holdings plc has been aiming at the Chinese market in recent years, and has made continuous investments in China＇s financial and insurance industries, which include the Bank of Communications (HSBC Holdings holds 19.9% shares), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Ltd. (HSBC holds 10% shares) and Bank of Shanghai. By the end of 2006, with the comprehensive opening-up of China＇s financial market, the country will absolutely become a strategic point. While compared with the banking industry, the life insurance industry has a greater potential for investment, especially the 3 most representative life insurance, property and casualty insurance stocks listed in Hong Kong: China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (China Life),Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. of China, Ltd. (Ping An Insurance) and PICC Property and Casualty Co. Ltd. (PICC P&C). As China Life both gets listed in Hong Kong and issues ADR (American Depository Receipt) in the U.S., its financial report must be reviewed and approved by the security regulatory institutions in Hong Kong and U.S., in this way its stock possesses a higher credibility than the A shares of China.

The insurance industry will be one of the greatest beneficiaries of the RMB revaluation. In addition, as China＇s insurance market was only at its startup period, there exists a strong driving force coming from its growing domestic demand. The annual financial report last year of China＇s largest life insurance company ---- China Life showed that its net profit was RMB7.17 billion, which was higher than the market forecast. Moreover, with its total capitals reaching RMB374.9 billion, the company＇s share price still has space to rise further in the long run. The others like Pin An Insurance and PICC P&C also possess the same quality.

In terms of their ownership of huge amount of RMB capitals, China Mobile, China Unicom, CNC (China Network Communications Corp.) and China Telecom are also noticeable targets. In particular, since China will soon open up its 3G licensing, and its popularization of mobile communication continues to grow, plus the Chinese government will lead the restructure of telecommunication industry, all of these will favor the future development of these companies.

Utility Stocks Rise with Tide

In addition to the above, the industries in which China holds an exclusively dominant position, which is uneasy to be replaced, also have the potential to rise in the long run, such as airport, harbor, and even other public listed utility companies. We can see, despite of the fact that China＇s A share market has stayed sluggish for long in recent years, the share price of Shanghai Airport manages to maintain a high level. It has been climbing from RMB5.923 in 2001 all the way to RMB18.11, and yet continuing to set the new record height at present. This reflects that China＇s aviation market is taking off. Being an A-share listed company, with Hongqiao Airport and Pudong Airport (both in Shanghai City) as its direct holding companies, Shanghai Airport＇s share price has never fallensince Pudong Airport was put into service.

We may also take a look at Beijing Capital International Airport Co. Ltd., an H-share company listed in Hong Kong. Even though its current scale is smaller than that of Shanghai Airport, as the Beijing 2008 Olympics approaches, the extension of the airport is underway, thus its future performance and growth potential is even more worth expecting.

The emerging China＇s aviation market will become the second largest aviation market in the world. China＇s future demand for airport will undoubtedly continue to grow and will find no substitution. As the country＇s utility companies like those of airport, harbor and expressway go public one after another in Mainland China or Hong Kong, along with the expectation for RMB to revaluate, China＇s utility stocks will definitely become increasingly hotter.

(By Huang Qiyi, Translated by Yang Xu)