调查上海的房地产市场,分析经济对房价市场波动带来的影响

摘要：经济对房价市场的影响是复杂并多元化的，这涉及到房地产市场的历史发展和全球经济变化对房价市场的影响。

关键词：上海 房地产市场 经济的

Abstract: The economic reasons for price fluctuation in Shanghai housing market are complex and various all the time due to its history of development of housing market and global economic impact.

Key words: Shanghai, housing market, economic.

Shanghai is the most important culture, industrial and commercial city in China. It has the fastest speed of development from 2000 to 2006. However, many economists have claimed that Shanghai city in China should be wary of signs of housing prices bubbles (Yue Shen, Eddie Chi-man Hui and Hongyu Liu 2005). The economic reasons for price fluctuation in Shanghai housing market are complex and various all the time due to its history of development of housing market and global economic impact. There are several factors that result in price fluctuation in Shanghai housing market.

First of all, according to the nature of development, everything has its beginning, growth, mature and decline period. Shanghai housing prices arise almost six years from 2000 to 2006. It has been through the most exciting rapid growth periods. So it is the time for changing growth status to mature now. It is not a good sign that things develop too fast and perfect.

Secondly, according to Yue Shen, ‘Shanghai seemed to have a housing price bubble in 2003, representing a sizeable 22 percent (Yue Shen, Eddie Chi-man Hui and Hongyu Liu 2005)’.Therefore, the government wants to avoid a collapse of the real-estate bubble, with investors unable to pay bank debts, leaving banks with huge amounts of bad loans. Therefore, it issues a series of regulations. In 2005, the government increases the interest rate and tightens the rules of real estate transactions. It decided that a transaction tax was imposed at the effective rate of more than five percent of the house transaction price for sellers who have owned their properties for less than two years .At the same time, Central Bank raised twice of interest rates on mortgages. This regulation has brought to a cool-down impact on Shanghai hot housing market and it the first time to have a negative sign of housing prices in 2006. (Yue Shen, Eddie Chi-man Hui and Hongyu Liu 2005)

Third, the vacant new housing is an important indicator for determining housing prices. The balance between supply and demand in the space market is very important A large vacancy stock indicates an over supply in the housing market and will decrease the average selling price of new housing. Some reports said the supply and demand relationship of Shanghai housing market has been changed now. It shows a large vacancy trend of Shanghai housing market now. The research report predicts that the supply of newly built commercial houses in Shanghai will exceed the demand for them in the future 3 years (Shanghai Municipal Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative conference). So Shanghai housing prices will slightly go down in the future.