没有消息是坏消息

我们常说“没有消息就是好消息”，但我宁愿说“有时候没有消息就是坏消息”，它描绘了中国汽车行业目前的现状

奥地利EFS汽车咨询公司总裁

我们常说“没有消息就是好消息”，这意味着没有噩耗传来，说明一切正常，是好消息。但现在我宁愿说：“有时候没有消息就是坏消息”，它描绘了中国汽车行业目前的现状。

我这么讲，是因为发生的一切都在我的预料之中——几乎没有一个惊人的好消息是来自于中国的自主品牌或合资品牌的中方合作伙伴。

可以从以下四个方面来佐证。

第一个方面，汽车销量。

2012年上半年，日本汽车制造商从海啸中恢复过来，但之后因为有争议的领土，日本与中国之间产生了政治纠纷，日本汽车制造商的销量受到严重打击。但这并未成为中国自主品牌的机会，而在此期间，美国、德国和韩国的汽车制造商们，正享受着日系品牌因销量骤减所失去的蛋糕。

如果没有中国政府的政策激励措施，中国自主品牌受到的打击将更为严重。

第二个方面，限购风。

今年7月，为了解决日益恶化的交通堵塞和缓解空气污染，广州中小客车通过摇号的方式进行限购，而每年增量配额为12万辆。广州成为继上海、北京和贵阳之后，国内第四个对乘用车采取限制上牌措施的城市。

广州可能不是最后一个，更多的候选城市将在不久的将来实施限购措施。对于中国自主品牌来说，这是一个长期存在的威胁。

第三个方面，外国汽车制造商持续的产能扩张潮。

通用汽车的中国合资公司上汽通用五菱宣布计划投资66亿元人民币（约合10.6亿美元）在重庆两江新区国际汽车城建设其第三生产基地。将于2015年投产，新工厂将助上汽通用五菱实现200万辆的目标。

通用汽车也正在武汉江夏建设一个生产基地。此生产基地将于2014年开始投产，生产别克、雪佛兰和凯迪拉克的中小型轿车、SUV、电动汽车或混合动力汽车。

奥迪计划斥资30亿欧元，在未来的五年里开发、生产并销售其新产品。新的投资将帮助奥迪扩大年产量至每年70万辆。

大众汽车公司和一汽集团最近签署了一项协议，以延长其战略伙伴关系到2041年，因此也解决了专利侵权的关注。一汽-大众在长春和成都有生产基地，同时也在中国南方城市佛山建造另外一个生产基地。

在外国汽车制造商正在加速抢占中国自主品牌在本土市场份额的时候，自主品牌都做了些什么？——出口。新兴市场成了中国自主品牌失去国内市场的一个补偿。这也引出我要说的第四个方面——中国自主品牌出口上升。

中国汽车在新兴经济体蓬勃发展，如拉丁美洲和中东市场，这些市场尚未饱和，更容易接受新的廉价品牌，而中国今年的汽车出口额预计能首次突破100万辆。在阿尔及利亚、巴西、伊朗、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯和南非等国家的道路上，越来越多地点缀着像奇瑞、吉利和长城这样的汽车。

但遗憾的是，到目前为止，很少有中国本土品牌攻破西方市场。中国每年向欧盟输送了几千辆，而美国几乎为零。在许多西方市场，中国仍然有着某种消极和廉价的声誉。为了改变这一形象，中国政府开始了产业升级，希望改变中国的形象从“中国制造”到高品质形象的“中国设计”。

中国自主品牌的短板在于技术。技术需要时间来建立，但在今天的开放市场是能买到的，像吉利收购沃尔沃一样。吉利并不只是收购了一些技术，而是它的全部，包括管理诀窍。

当然，市场上不会有那么多品牌待售，但中国自主品牌可以通过聘用外国汽车专家来帮助他们对产品精益求精，为其管理层员工进行有必要的多种文化的团队管理机制培训，并为企业内部定义和制定世界级水平的产品流程体系等。

如果他们再不加快脚步阔步前进，恐怕在不久的将来，将会失去自己本土的市场。因此，在当前中国汽车产业的形势下，我的结论是“没有消息就是坏消息”。因为它意味着中国自主品牌如果没有去适应自己，将会在本土市场外国竞争对手的压力下节节败退。

Sometimes no news is bad news

Now I would rather to say “sometimes no news is bad news”， which applies to the current situation in the Chinese auto industry.

There is a saying “no news is good news”， which means having no information means that bad developments are unlikely. But now I would rather to say “sometimes no news is bad news”， which applies to the current situation in the Chinese auto industry.

I say so， because everything has indeed happened as I expected， and unsurprisingly there are almost no surprising good news from Chinese local OEMs， or from the Chinese partner of the joint ventures.

We could see it from the following 4 aspects.

Auto sales：

In line with industry forecast last year for a rise around 5 to 10 percent for the whole 2012， China’s car market has slowed along with the domestic economy and passenger car sales rose nearly 7 percent in the year to October.

For the first half of 2012， Japanese automakers were recovering from the tsunami， but after political dispute between Japan and China over disputed territory， Japanese automakers sales are decreasing as expected. Chinese auto consumers are afraid to buy Japanese brands， because during September protests some motorists driving Japanese cars were attacked.

Unsurprisingly， this would not be the chance to local Chines automakers， because their products are not in the same segment/range as the Japanese passengers cars， which are sold in Mainland China.

At the meantime， the US， German， and South Korean automakers are enjoying sales increase caused by Japanese brands loses.

Without central government policy incentives， China’s domestic carmakers have been particularly hard hit， losing market share to German， the US and South Korean rivals.

Tighten regulations against new car registration

In July， China’s southern metropolis of Guangzhou began to limit car registrations through a license plate lottery and auction， which followed Shanghai， Beijing and Guiyang imposed a strict quota on new car registration.

In order to treat the worsening problems of traffic and air pollution， Guangzhou allocates the city's annual 120，000 new car registration quota through the lottery and auction models.

This may not be the last city， and more candidate cities will implement limits in the near future. This is a long-term threat for China’s local automakers， if in the next 10 years they are still struggling upgrading product， quality and brand image.

Foreign automakers expanding in China

General Motors and its joint venture partner SAIC-GM-Wuling， planning to invest 6.6 billion yuan （about 1.06 billion USD） to build its third international Automobile City in Chongqing. This plant will be put into operation in 2015， and will help SAIC-GM-Wuling to achieve 2-million production goal.

General Motors also is building a plant in Wuhan. Production in Wuhan is scheduled to start in 2014. The factory will build small and medium-sized cars and SUVs and electric vehicles or hybrids for Buick， Chevrolet and Cadillac.

Wuhan – is the capital of central China’s Hubei province – because it’s location， comparably lower wages than Tier 1 cities and both quantity and quality of the local universities – is home to major China’s automaker Dongfeng Motor Corp. Nissan Motor Co.， Honda Motor Co.， and PSA Peugeot Citroen also have joint ventures in Wuhan.

In recent interviews， Audi plans to spend 3 billion Euros to develop， produce and sell new products in China over the next five years. The new investment will help Audi boost its China production to 700， 000 cars a year.

VW AG and FAW Group have recently signed an agreement to extend their strategic partnership until 2041， resolving concerns about patent violations. FAW-Volkswagen has assembly plants in Changchun and Chengdu， and it is also building an assembly plant in the south China city of Foshan.

The foreign automakers are speeding up to squeeze the market share of China’s local automakers in their homeland. And what they have done so far？ Going to emerging market is like a compensation of what China’s local automakers lost in domestic market.

China’s local automakers export rise

The US is still struggling in the crisis， while Europe is facing even more difficulties at the moment； the only hopes at the moment and near future are Brazil， China， India and Russia.

For the first time， China is expected to export 1 million vehicles this year. So far there are few cases of Chinese local brands actually cracking the western market. Instead， China’s homegrown brands have already flourished in emerging economies like Latin America and Middle East， where the markets are not yet saturated and more accepting of cheap new brands.

China is shipping only a few thousand cars per year to European Union and almost none to the US. But China’s exports to emerging markets are surging as its own domestic auto market slows. Roads in countries like Algeria， Brazil， Iran， Russia， Saudi Arabia and South Africa are increasingly dotted with cars from automakers like Chery， Geely and Great Wall Motors.

In many western markets China still has somehow a negative and cheap reputation. This is a hindrance for Chinese brands before they even start in these markets. In order to change this image， Chinese government started industry integration， which would like to change China’s image from “just” “Made in China” to a quality driven image of “Designed in China”.

The weakness of local Chinese cars is technology. Yes， technology needs time to build up， but one can buy a lot of it on the open markets nowadays， like Geely bought Volvo. They don't just get some technology， but all of it， including management’s knowhow.

Of course there won't be so many brands on the market for sales， but China’s local automakers can hire foreign experts to help them building up product excellence， and sending their employees training multi-culture management knowhow and defining world-class standard process systems， etc.

If they are not faster and comprehensively progressing， I am afraid they might in the near future lose their home market.

Therefore I came to the conclusion that “no news is bad news” in the current situation of the Chinese auto industry， because it means that by not-adapting Chinese makers are losing ground to their foreign competitors.