Determination of the Residential Housing Needs Expected for Cities of Jordan Wit

[a] Department of Regional Planning-College of Planning & Management, Al-Balqa Applied University, AL-Salt, Jordan.

*Corresponding author.

Received 9 March 2012; accepted 10 May 2012

Abstract

The objective: The present study examined the prospective residential need for urban regions in Jordan cities in the administrative governorates as urban centers due to the size of population, of which the population are over 10,000 people during the period of (2014-2024). That is to determine the housing need due to trends of population growth and the prospective expectations of housing in the future. Methods: In order to do that, the interpretative analysis based on quantitative statistical approach was used to estimate the housing need of population in urban areas, due to population growth and the average of family size. The equation of population growth and housing needs assessment were used based on the average family size. Determination of the prospective size of the population increase is measured due to the number of the population during the period of (2014-2024) through coaching with the equation of population growth, and, then, prospective housing need during the period of (2014-2024) is calculated.

Conclusions: The study found out that there are significant differences in terms of the distribution of population and housing on the urban communities identified by this study. It also revealed that the concentration of population increases in the city of Amman.

Key words: The prospective need of housing; Jordan Cities

Mahmoud Abdullah Al-Habees (2012). Determination of the Residential Housing Needs Expected for Cities of Jordan Within the Period of 2014-2024. Management Science and Engineering, 6(2), -0. Available from URL: /index.php/mse/article/view/j.mse.1913035X20120602.3700

DOI: /10.3968/j.mse.1913035X20120602.3700

INTRODUCTION

Countries have been interested with housing needs due to the increasing demand for, which is related to population growth and changes of the size and characteristics of the population at any locative level either national, regional or local, or institutional and where housing is one of the basic requirements of the population and one of the basic needs like food, clothing, etc. Housing is by and large one of the economic goods, requiring some inputs to be available such as labor, capital, land, and building materials (World Bank, 1999). In addition to the services related to housing and management operating the sector. Accordingly, the residential need is considered as the number of housing units that must be constructed or maintained to ensure the stability of the housing situation within the required level. This stability is by methods of development and urban renewal or replacement of residential areas (Bourne, 1981; Abu-ayanah, 1981; Wanaasi, 2009). Planning policies of housing emphasizes the function and regulation of residential job and the selection of residential site or appropriate residential communities, which are of objectives and of economic dimensions (Al-Rahmani, 2012).The housing policies are considered one of the interests of developmental planning because the size of the housing problem in any country depends completely on the size of the prospective housing needs. Thus, the greater this size is, the greater the severity of the problem is, and, consequently, more wages, housing allowance, and the number of royal housing units, in Jordan, increase (Al-Hunaiti, 1993).Other concerned institutions were also established in this sector to meet the growing demand for housing (General Organization for housing and Urban Development, 2010). when rates of population growth has been arising, Jordan realizes challenges and difficulties facing the housing expectations pertaining to population trends, seriousness of this growth, including those which are related to housing sector, and identification of the most important factors affecting urban growth which represented by economic, social, cultural, technological, religious and communicative factors (Saleh, & Al-Obaidi, 1990). These factors are strongly associated with analysis of the urban system and demonstrating the consecutive growth and the population needs (Jarnyh, 1993).The housing need can be defined as the extent to which housing units are quantitatively and qualitatively less than what should be provided in order to provide decent housing for every family in the community. Data of the Department of Statistics indicate that the number of Jordan’s population in 2010 was estimated to be 6113.0 thousand people, and population density is 68.7 people per km square, whereas the proportion of the population in urban areas is about 82.6%. The average family size was 5.4 individuals, and the proportion of dwellings connected to public water, electricity, and sanitation amounted to: 97.7%, 99.9%, and 59.9%, respectively (Department of statistics, 2010). The results of Population and Housing Census in 1979 and 2004 indicate that the number of dwellings in urban centers has been doubled, particularly in governorates of Amman, Zarqa, Aqaba and Irbid, which saw the highest rates of increase in terms of the number of housing units than that of other governorates as that the percentage of dwellings versus a housing sum of each governorate was: 93%, 94%, 88%, and 77%, respectively. That is because of the central location of Amman and AL-Zarqa between cities and other governorates and of the existence of a state of connectivity and urban and residential interdependence uninterrupted when moving between Amman, the capital city of Jordan and other neighboring governorates such as AL-Balqa, Madaba andAL-Zarqa.Jordanian cities underwent rapid population growth and a great housing extension since 1990s of the last century. Urbanization rates have increased in Jordan from 59% in 1979 to 82% in 2004; As a result, an increasing demand for housing, which do not meet all of the housing needs. Qualitative and quantitative changes affected Jordan cities of which size of the population is growing and, thus, people expand to neighborhoods of housing as a result of realistic urban expansion in addition to several factors which may have led to population growth in the cities of Jordan. This is related to the situation that Jordan is undergoing a stage of demographic transition which results in a hierarchy of cities sizes as confirmed by Clark (Clark, 1979).

Problem of the study and questions: The problem of the study lies in that Jordan cities have undergone a rapid growth over the past years. This growth affected reflected negatively on the insurance of housing need as well as the existence of unequal distribution of housing between the urban centers in the governorates of Jordan and housing need increase in and lack of housing in other cities. The problem becomes clear when answering the following questions: 1. What are the population growth trends in Jordan cities? 2. What are the prospective housing needs of those cities? 3. What is the size of prospective housing needs because of the future population growth?.

Significance of the study: The study is of paramount importance because it deals with a very important subject in Jordan as a developing country, which is affected by political situations in the Middle East after displaced migrations by the negative impact on Jordan from various aspects, including the housing sector. As a result, determining the size and the reality of housing has to be planned in the short-term period, depending on a long-term strategy.

Objectives of the study: This study mainly diagnoses the phenomenon of the urban housing need. It also determines the reality of the geographical distribution of population, spatial variation of the rates of population growth, and changes which is caused by population growth. In addition, it lays down the prospective housing needs of urban areas and determines the change of the distribution.

Review of related literature: Various studies dealt with this subject, including Abu-Ayanha (1993) which investigates the random and cumulative growth to form a pattern of growth in urban centers and existence of a relationship between population growth and the formation of urbanization. This relationship was identified via the spatial dimensions related to the geographical distribution of population and urbanization. EL-Mhana (1995) estimates the housing need in Palestine in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. It comes up with the existence of a shortage of houses and high ratio of Hashemite housing. Cullingworth (1998) identifies variables of population size and structure, the general standard of living, income distribution, the cost of construction, etc. that affect the growth and increase of housing need. McDonald (2001) deals with methodology of producing estimates of demand for medium-and long-term housing. It also highlights the importance of the expectations of the potential housing needs. Zubair (2001) argues that housing construction is a stimulus for economic growth, particularly in urban areas. He also claims that the housing sector is one of the most important sectors of economic growth because it creates new opportunities through internal and external investment. This study also indicates that housing construction is an important activity playing a significant role in recruiting the labor force. In addition, there are also many studies which have touched the same topic including: Myers et al. (2002), Wang (2003), and AL-Zahrani (2004). The most prominent report issued by the Commission for Communities UK (2006) is that what assesses the housing need in rural England for the years 2006 to 2011 and how to meet that need. Godwin (2006) investigates the economic importance of housing in developing countries and to make it part of the housing development planning of economic development and to identify its needs due to the strategy of economic development and its relationship to residential growth.

Kintrea (2007) probes into the issue of deserted housing in England. It finds out that housing needs are constantly growing, and the gap increases between the number and quality of ancient, modern, and rented housing. Winters and Elsinga (2008) indicates the continued survival of the housing need in the future in Belgium. It also indicates that it is necessary to increase the incomes of the population to obtain adequate housing through improving housing association revenues and focus on the needy and unable people who cannot afford the cost of housing. Besides, these aspects are also dealt with by the following studies: Noreen (2007) and AL-Rabdawi (2010) tackles the increases of the dwellings number in Sultanate of Oman and how they are distributed due to type of construction materials used, in Jordan AL-Madanat et al. (1985), Alawin et al. (1991), AL-Hassan (1991), the National Committee of Population (1992), Theeb (1994), Ghosheh (1994), Awajrah (1994), AL- Rawabdeh (1994), Yacob (1996), Khanji (2000), AL-Syriani (2002), AL-Shubaak and Aysh (2002), Damrah (2003), a report prepared by the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (2003), The General Organization for Housing and Urban Development (2003), Alqubaan (2004), Abukharmah (2005), Aldbaih(2005), Abuanzh, and Nsir (2007), AL-Abadi (2007), a study carried out by the General Organization for Housing and Urban Development in Jordan (2008), Al-Bayer (2009), and AL-Bostanji (2010).

Methodology: In order to obtain the interpretative analysis, the quantitative statistical approach was used to estimate the housing needs of the population in urban areas, based on population growth and the average of family size. The method is to estimate population growth rates and expected population increase and, then, to determine the housing need in the light of that increase and the average family size, covered mainly the population census. On the other hand, appropriate diagrams and maps were drawn clarify the results of the study.

The limitations of the study

1. Spatial domain: it is identified to the Jordan cities in the administrative governorates as urban centers depending on their size. The number of population of these centers is more 10,000 people.

2. Temporal domain: it is identified to the years 2014 to 2024 in determining the housing need (Department of Statistics, the results of censuses, 1994 & 2004).

Sources of data: The study relies on data issued by the Department of Statistics in the censuses of 1994 and 2004 in determining the urban communities which have been counted up for the study purposes; the number of population of these centers is more 10,000 people. That is because the Department of Statistics determines the urban community as any gathering with 5000 people.

Statistical methods: The study relies on the Geometric formula as the following: the equation of population growth (1, 2):

Equation (1) …….

Equation (2)….

It was then rely on formulas as follows:

Where:

r = rate of city population growth. Pt = population in the next census.

Po = population in the previous census. N = time period between two censuses. In order to calculate the potential population increases for the years 2014-2024 based on the population of Jordan cities, the population growth rate was used for the period 1994-2004. Then, the potential population increases were calculated based on equation of the potential population increases (1). Second, the housing needs assessment based on the average family size according to 2004 census for each city using the equation of the average family size (3) = The Number of population of 2004 ÷ number of households in the city 2004.In addition to determine the size of the potential population increase based on the number of the potential population between 2014 and 2024 of the population increase by applying the equation (4) (A and B):

4 -A -Population increase for the period 2004-2014 = difference between the number of population for the period 2004-2014.

4 -B -Population increase for the period 2014-2024 = difference between the number of the population for the period 2014 -2024.

Third: According to the potential population increase and the average family size in the 2004 census, the potential housing need is calculated during (2014 and 2024) via equation 5A and 5B).

A -The housing need for each city = the population increase during 2004-2014/ the average family size.

B -The housing need for each city = the population increase during 2014-2024/ the average family size.

Tables 1 and 2 explain the practical application of the above equations.

Analysis and discussion: After applying the equations above, it is obvious that depending on Tables 1 and 2 there is a clear difference in terms of the distribution of population and housing to the urban communities identified in this study. They reveal that the concentration of population increases in Amman, where it is expected in 2014 that its population becomes two-thirds of the major cities’ and about three quarters of the population in 2024. So, the city of Amman will need about 81% of the total housing units expected in urban areas in 2014 and 85% of that total in 2024. Figure 1 illustrates the relationship between the number of housing units and the number of urban population expected in the years 2014, 2024. The urban population in the governorates of Amman, Aqaba, AL-Zarqa, Madaba and AL-Mafraq witnessed the highest population growth rates for the period 1994-2004. To the contrary, the lowest growth rates of urban population were in the governorates of AL-Tafileh, Maan, AL-Karak and Ajloun. The highest population growth rates of the major cities for the period 1994-2004 were in the cities: Amman, Aqaba, Madaba, AL-Balqa, Jerash. The lowest population growth rates of the major cities for the same period were in the cities of: AL-Zarqa, Ajloun, AL-Karak andAL-Tafila. Previous observations indicate the urban dominance of the city of Amman in relation to the major cities in Jordan. The rate of annual population growth in was 5.3%, suggesting that the cities which are far away far from the capital city have become marginal and scattered, based on these equations.The migration, natural increase and economic development play a significant role in concentrating and speeding population growth in the cities of Amman, Aqaba, AL-Zarqa, Irbid, Jerash, and Madaba in the period 1960-1980. In the period 1980-2000, some cities get increased in terms of population growth at high rates, whereas in other cities growth slowed down. However, urban spatial growth rates continued in the same direction. In addition, there is a vertical expansion in residential buildings in Amman,AL-Zarqa and Irbid. Also, the housing area increased in ??Amman, AL-Zarqa and Irbid (General Organization for Housing and Urban Development, 2010. At the governorate level, Table 2 shows that the governorates of central territory (Amman, AL-Zarqa,AL-Balqa, Madaba) will include 78% of the urban population of Jordan in 2014 and 81% of that total in 2024. Thus, the population of that region will needs to 85% of the total housing units in 2014 and to 87% of that total in 2024. The governorates of the north territory (Irbid, AL-Mafraq, Ajloun and Jerash) will include 17% of the total urban population in 2014 and 15% of them in 2024 (a decline of 2%). Concerning the number of housing units, this territory will need to 11% of the total needs in 2004 and 10% of that total in 2024. Figure 3 explains the relationship between the number of housing units and potential population in the period 2014-2024.