Retirement Strategy Study Based on Simulation Experiment

[a]School of Labor Science and Law， Beijing Wuzi University， Beijing， China.

[b]School of Information， Beijing Wuzi University， Beijing， China.

Corresponding author.

Supported by Science and Technology Innovation Platform of Beijing Education Commission： Modern Human Resources Management Method and Technology （PXM2013_14214_000058）.

Received 21 April 2013； accepted 6 July 2013

Abstract

To minimize negative effects， it is necessary to well-consider workers’ retirement intentions and decisions when government formulates and implements postponing statutory retirement age scheme having significant influences on interests of government and workers. In reality， formation of workers’ retirement strategies is not based on perfect information and complete rationality， but affected by social relation network. This paper establishes a simulation experiment model to simulate reflections of workers being confronted with a delaying retirement scheme. The results after running a simple experiment show that a worker’ retirement intention and decision may change after referring to link-persons’ mainstream opinions no matter how decision-making ability he/she has.

Key words： Postponing statutory retirement age； Social network； Simulation experiment； Retirement intention and decision

ZUO Chunling， ZHANG Fangfeng （2013）. Retirement Strategy Study Based on Simulation Experiment. Studies in Sociology of Science， 4（3）， -0. Available from： URL： http：///index.php/sss/article/view/j.sss.1923018420130403.2646

DOI： http：///10.3968/j.sss.1923018420130403.2646

INTRODUCTION

Statutory retirement age1 is an essential social economic parameter. Governments can make interventions in some other important social economic variables， say revenue and expenditure of the social pension insurance fund or employment capacity and structure of labor market， by adjusting it. In order to improve social administrative efficiency， it is considered necessary for government to select an appropriate time to extend statutory retirement age2. However， it’s no doubt for workers that postponing retirement will bring about utility decrease owning to reduction of spare time. So， the attitude of workers， who are for or against delaying retirement scheme， will have a decisive impact on effects of this scheme. An example that the government of France extended the statutory retirement age from 60 to 62， which then causing social instability， indicates that it is the game pattern between a government and social public that decides social policies’ effects3. Particularly， if a government unilaterally imposes to delay retirement， touching the core interests of workers， without accurate grasp of workers’ opinion， the social crisis will be inevitable.

In China， a research institute with government background put forward the conception of delaying statutory retirement age in 2008 due to consideration of cope with social pension payment pressure in the near future. When assessing effects of this idea， Chinese researchers are always trying to explore how replacement ratio of pension， post， and some other elements affect workers’ retirement intentions and decisions through some statistical method. There is an apparent defect without considering impacts of social relation network on the retirement intention and decision of a worker. To solve this problem， this paper will build a model through simulation method based on the concept of social network so as to put forward a more scientific method to evaluate effects of postponing retirement scheme in China.

1. INFLUENCE FACTORS ON EFFECTS OF POSTPONING RETIREMENT SCHEME

Generally， the basis referred by government when formulating statutory retirement age policy subsume not only workers’ natural physiological index but also several social administration indexes， such as the average life expectancy， rate of unemployment， ratio of social support， social pension payment gap， and etc. Whether workers support postponing retirement scheme or not， will decide its effects directly. According to some respective studies based on statistics samples extracted from Chinese workers by Chinese researchers， age， education background， income level and nature of job are main factors to affect workers’ retirement intentions and decisions significantly （Sun & Wu， 2009）. Obviously， impact of social network elements， such as the ideas of family members， friends， leaders at higher level， nature of working unit， and differences among workers， such as individual decision-making ability， intention stability， had not been taken into Liao’s consideration. Therefore， it is necessary to seek a better way to fit closer to the reality of the process following which workers form their retirement intentions and make retirement decisions.

This paper researches effects of delaying retirement scheme from the perspective of social network1. The constructed model is made up of two types of nodes. One node represents workers， the nature of which include name， age， social identification marker2， nature of post， replacement rate of basic pension， their opinions to the delaying retirement scheme， their capacities of making decisions， the stability of their decisions， and link-persons they contacting with （say relatives， classmates， workmates， friends and so on）. The other node represents various communities which can be divided into working units and other communities which may have effects on workers’ retirement intentions and decisions， such as enterprises in the same industry， superior departments， customer units and so on. There are also some edges representing information dissemination medias in this social network model. Whether it is community or individual， whether he/she plays the role of opinion leader， adherent or some others， all of impacts cannot be made without proper information dissemination medias. Different information dissemination media also affects workers’ retirement intentions and decisions.

Standing for the view of social network， this paper will well-consider complexity of formation of workers’ retirement intentions and decisions. Assumption as usual， if individual was a rational people completely； the main optimization goals of him/her when making decisions will be economic benefits in the case of information symmetry. But reality is information about delaying retirement is not entirely symmetrical， it is unsubstantial to establish mathematical optimization algorithm completely according to imperfect information. What’s more， when we analyzed the social problems， a worker cannot be completely regarded as a rational person， because there are so many irrational factors， say emotional factors， affecting works’ intentions and decisions. For example， someone would like to postpone retirement to avoid formation of the sense of emptiness owing to out of work； or someone would have too more important life planning， such as touring or taking care of great-grandchild， to take huge income difference before and after retirement into account and have to or be willing to retire directly no matter how retirement scheme changes； or in other cases， someone cannot analyze all of pros and cons and economic profit and loss of delaying retirement due to insufficient information， and then vary his/her ultimate retirement intention and decision because of the influence from link-persons’ opinion. It’s very clear that all of the above described cannot be accurately specified only by a simple model or a regression equation. This study tries to break through the difficulties through designs of simulation experiment.

2. DESIGNS OF SIMULATION EXPERIMENT

In experience， views of most of workers on delaying retirement scheme may not be absolute extreme but a continuous change in attitude swing. Additionally， non-economic rationality and non-independent decision process are both important characteristics that should be described in a model of complex social network. In this paper， a dynamic model with communities is presented which takes into account the differences in community structures on the basis of Deffuant model， and a simple simulation experiment is to be run （Cheng， Xu， Peng， & Zhou， 2013）.

2.1 Selection of Parameter （Cheng， et al.， 2013； Liu， Hu， Luo， & Si， 2009）

There are three types of agents， that is， receptor agent of delaying retirement scheme， community agent that receptor involves in， and media agent.