时间：2022-06-23 08:01:59
Never before had so many CEOs of Global 500 companies gathered in Chengdu as on June 6 when the 2013 Fortune Global Forum kicked off in the southwestern Chinese metropolis known for giant pandas and spicy cuisine. The three-day event， with the theme of“China’s New Future，” lured attendance from more than 600 leaders of the world’s biggest multinational companies as well as government officials， economists， entrepreneurs， investors， and scholars – the largest attendance in the forum’s 12-year history – to brainstorm and share insight into the trends and forces that are redefining economic growth in China and the world in general.
Why Chengdu？
Chengdu is the fourth Chinese city to host the Fortune Global Forum after Shanghai （1999）， Hong Kong （2001） and Beijing （2005）， and this is the first time for the event to be held in western China.
“Western China has proved to be a major draw for leaders from all over the world，” remarked Andy Serwer， managing editor of Fortune magazine， as the forum approached. “We are pleased to bring focus to Chengdu， a great city at the center of the region’s development story.” Serwer added that the city lies in the heart of China’s booming west and is becoming a leading hub for higher education， as well as a diverse range of technologies， industries， logistics and services.
“Fortune’s choices over the years reflected the wealth and growth shift within China， and Chengdu is an embodiment of the shift，”noted Cao Heping， a professor from Peking University’s School of Economics.
Benefiting from the Western Development Strategy first implemented in 2000， inland China is now witnessing even faster development after lagging behind the eastern seaboard in the past. Western China now holds competitive advantages in essential production factors compared to eastern China， including costs， strong government support， and abundant human resources.
Chengdu， one of the largest cities in southwestern China and a gateway to China’s far west， has benefited from development strategies and the western regions’ greater exposure to the global economy. According to Ge Honglin， mayor of Chengdu， more than 200 of the Fortune Global 500 companies have already set up operations in Chengdu， establishing facilities in the city such as research centers， factories， and regional headquarters.
“This shows a larger trend of companies moving towards western China and a migration of industry to a developing country，” opined Serwer.
Betting on China’s Growth
For multinational industrial giants， China has become an attractive market with its population of 1.3 billion. “In recent history， Western companies looked to China for outsourcing and production，” explained Serwer. “Today， that trend is certainly continuing， but another important part， the consumer part， is gaining more weight.”
Increasing numbers of multinational companies are now setting their sights on China， which has become a massive market with incomparable advantages over other emerging markets， said Zhuang Jian， a senior economist with Asian Development Bank.
Just before the Forum， in late May， the International Monetary Fund （IMF） lowered its forecast for China’s economic growth this year to 7.75 percent down from an 8 percent prediction it made earlier.
However， the IMF’s worries didn’t seem to hurt multinational companies’ expectations for the country’s future growth. At the Fortune Global Forum， leaders of many of the most influential global companies agreed that China would be the most competitive emerging market in the coming decade despite short-term volatility.
“It seems absurd to talk about China’s growth at 8 percent versus 7.7 percent，”illustrated Joseph Jimenez， CEO of Swiss pharmaceutical giant Novartis AG， at the Forum. “It doesn’t matter. What matters is that over the next 10 years there’s going to be sustainable growth.”
Despite the fact that the country has suffered a slowdown particularly in exports due to the current international economic environment， some encouraging signs indicate that China’s economic growth is increasingly moving from an investment to a consumption model. Most panelists at the 2013 Fortune Global Forum agreed that shifts in China’s economic structure， particularly its urbanization drive， will provide opportunities for the rest of the world.
Dominic Barton， global managing director of McKinsey & Company， explained that urbanization is an “underlying force of growth” for China， which was almost uninterrupted despite external economic uncertainty. McKinsey has long estimated that China’s urban population will rise from current 52.6 percent to 70 percent by 2020. Barton predicts that China’s urban population will reach one billion by 2030.
The growing urban population， especially middle-class， will become a major spending force. As China is shifting towards a more consumer-based economy， the market will continue to grow rapidly， according to several speakers at the Forum.
Challenges Ahead
“Those who come to China often are pretty optimistic，” remarked Cai Hongbin， dean of the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University， at the Forum.“But those who have never been say China is collapsing.”
Cai is clearly among the optimists， like most panelists taking part in a discussion about China’s changing economy at the 2013 Fortune Global Forum. But no one underestimated the enormity of the challenges that lie ahead.
“The current growth model is run-ning out of gas，” warned Henry Paulson Jr.， former Secretary of the Treasury of the United States. “They’re going to need to reinvigorate reform. There’s not enough domestic-led growth. More is needed from the service industry.”
Paulson pointed out that problems remain in energy inefficiency and pollution when it comes to China’s urbanization.“How growth is accomplished will have serious environmental implications，” he continued. “China has already paid a hefty price for prosperity， leaving them with dirty air and water.” Also， a larger urban population will add even more pressure on the social security system， especially as China is becoming an “aged” society faster than expected.
China itself is aware of the stiff challenges it faces， as well as the importance of achieving sustainable development.“The Chinese government has made the environment its top priority，” declared Fu Chengyu， chairman of China’s leading petroleum supplier， Sinopec， at the Forum. “If that turns out to be true， all Chinese people will be able to breathe a big sigh of relief.”
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang recently vowed to boost the country’s service sector， which leads to far less pollution while ad- dressing growing domestic demand， creating jobs and optimizing the economic structure.
Virtually everyone agreed that a healthy， fast-growing Chinese economy will bring opportunity and benefits to the rest of the world. In his keynote speech at the Forum， former British Prime Minister Tony Blair illustrated， “The world is going to have to fashion， therefore， a working partnership with China is necessary to confront and to overcome the challenges we face together， because without China’s active participation and commitment， these challenges will not be easily and certainly not elegantly surmounted.”