时间：2022-10-29 11:40:31
Those that can no longer adapt to this changed market environment will be the first ones to bite the dust.
Market vs. Regulations
I still remember at the end of 2010 people in Beijing were rushing to their local car-dealers because they were afraid that it might not be easy to buy a car anymore in the year of 2011. Beijing launched a car quota system in January 2011, thus Beijing is not alone, some other cities also launched the similar regulations to limit the numbers of new car registrations in order to ease traffic congestion.
During the global economic crisis, the Chinese government adopted a series of measures to buoy the economy, including cutting car purchase taxes for small-engine vehicles and issuing subsidies for car purchases in rural areas. But most of these incentives ended at the end of 2010.
When we look at the China auto sales in 2011 as a result, the numbers won’t surprise us. Vehicle sales just rose 2.6 percent year-on-year to 16.82 million units in the first 11 months of 2011, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. This Jan. to Nov. （2011）growth figure showed a dramatic drop from 30 percent in 2010 and 50 percent in 2009. Together with Dec. vehicle sales are estimated to have risen 3 percent in 2011, which will mark the lowest level since 1999.
With these low numbers in mind domestic carmakers were quick to demand looser quotas in Beijing in order to stimulate vehicle sales again.
Will consolidation finally happen in 2012?
As we observed this year（2011）, the market stopped its strong growth phase. As sales increases dropped to low single-digit level, consolidation among carmakers is inevitable. Like in other mature markets before the fight for market-share will cause its victims.
Domestic brands declined 2.34 % to 5.52 million units this year. If domestic brands still rely on government regulations such as incentives in 2009-2010 they will be out of the game soon because the industry won’t return to its old growth mode. Those that can no longer adapt to this changed market environment will be the first ones to bite the dust.
As consumer requirements for vehicle quality and brand image are increasing, domestic brands need to increase their efforts to stay competitive in technology, quality & reliability, while at the same time raise their brand awareness.
EV that didn't happen
When China overtook the U.S. as the world’s largest auto market it had ambitions about developing and spreading EVs and step by step lessen the dependency on fossil fuels. As a direct result the government set-up a 100 Billion RMB fund with the goal to foster the domestic development of electric vehicles.
But according to reports electric car production is pretty much limited, without real sustainable sales. One of the most promising companies, Buffet-invested BYD, was not able to bring EVs to the market. Although other state-owned carmakers are investing and developing EV they are still lack of a secure battery technology that doesn’t burn down the car. (That this is by no means a trivial problem to solve show the recent fire-incidents of the Chevy Volt in the U.S.)
Even worse, after an article published by Premier Wen, many OEMs misread and even decided to boost hybrid technology and drop EV plans. As I mentioned in my previous articles, it’s important that China continues to research and develop EV, as foreign carmakers already mastered hybrid technology and now slowly set their target at EVs. If the Chinese automotive industry does not act decisively towards EVs they will out themselves into a self-caused disadvantage for many years to come.
Saab's story came to an end
Recently Saab Automobile filed for bankruptcy while Chinese investors made an announcement that they will stop the acquisition and thus the 2-year-long story came to a rather quick end.
After the crisis in 2008, GM is majority owned by the U.S. government. It’s not in the strategic interest of both the U.S. government and GM to allow Chinese investors to buy Saab both from a political and competitive point of view. As so often before this story showed us that any M&A has a high risk potential, especially when there are foreign governments involved.
Meanwhile China is developing at such fast rate that western countries already shifted their mindset from partner to future powerful competitor. This will make future acquisitions even harder.
China's new polices for the next years
Recently China’s Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Council announced a guideline: Withdrawal of support for foreign capital in auto manufacturing; meanwhile it will encourage more foreign investment into environmentally friendly technologies, alternative-fuel cars and other areas with guidelines taking effect from Jan. 30. 2012.
This is a sign that the government hopes to boost the auto industry’s quality development rather than quantitative excellence. This is a good sign for the regulations makers as they lead the development of the future.