关于在中国钢铁工业降低能耗和减少能源成本的研究

摘要：钢铁工业在中国属于高能耗工业，煤和电又是钢铁制造的主要能量来源。目前钢铁工业在中国的工业化进程中由于中国经济的转型而处于转型期，而钢铁需求近几年来急速增长也进一步扩大了能源需求。另一方面，由于政府的宏观调控，煤炭和电的价格自1980年以来也在快速增长。巨大的能源需求导致高能耗，而越来越高的能源价格也进一步增加了钢铁制造的成本。激励于降低能耗和减少能源成本的紧迫需求，本文构建了系统动力学模型来帮助探寻相关政策，目的是为了寻找钢铁行业在其转型期内缓解能源问题的方法。此模型有助于学习一个复杂的动态问题，因此能更好的帮助理解能源相关政策的可行性及有效性。测试结果表明大部分可选择的政策仍具有成本效益。然而，如何去实践操作这些政策措施依旧是关键，因为某些政策诸如能源税和研发补贴的可行性在现实世界中仍然面临质疑。另一个结论发现：发展回收废钢的技术有可能有效的缓解二氧化碳排放，且可操作性相对较强。

关键词：中国钢铁工业 系统动力学 能源价格 能源需求 转型期

Abstract:Chinese steel industry is one of the energy intensive industries in China. Coal and electricity are the two main energy sources for steel making. Steel industry in China is experiencing its transition period because of economy transition during the industrialization period. Steel demand has increased significantly in recent years, which correspondingly enlarges the energy demand. On the other hand, energy prices of coal and electricity have been increasing dramatically since 1980 because of the macro-control from the government. Large energy demand leads to high energy consumption and high energy price raises the energy expense of steel making. Motivated by the need to reduce energy use and energy expense, a System Dynamics based model is built to investigate policies in order to help Chinese steel industry ease energy problems during its transition period. The model helps to foster learning about a dynamically complex system, and thus contributes to a better understanding on the effectiveness, validity of energy policies. Results show that most of the investigated policy options are cost-effective. However, implementation remains a critical issue, the viability of energy tax and R&D subsidy is still questionable in the real world. Developing the technology of recycling scrapped steel is found to be useful in limiting carbon emission with comparatively easy implementation.

Key Words: Chinese steel industry, System Dynamics, energy price, energy demand, Transition

Introduction

Steel industry is one of the energy intensive industries in China, and is responsible for the country’s 15% of the total energy consumption and corresponding carbon dioxide emissions. Iron and steel production consumes a large quantity of coal, especially in China at its early stage of industrialization where outdated, inefficient technologies are extensively used to produce iron and steel. High energy demand during industrialization transition period and rapidly rising energy price due to resource scarcity and potential government policy adjustment are two challenges for steel industry. The dynamic condition allows us to use some tool which can capture the above features and the interrelationships among them.