时间：2022-09-30 10:27:56
Early in January 2013， the IMF published the “World Economic Outlook”， sketching a map of the economic recovery in 2013. As the factors inhibiting the global economic activities diminished， the global economic recovery will be faster. As IMF expected， the average economic growth is to be 3.5% this year， higher than the 3.2% growth rate last year.
On September 1， the World Economic Forum published the 2013-2014 Global Competitiveness Report in Switzerland （hereafter Report）， in which the organization made an overall and thorough estimation and judgment of the 48 countries and regions in terms of their present and future economic situation.
The Report says that many of the risks it once forecasted did not become the truth. The United States did not fall into the fiscal cliff； the Euro Zone did not break down； China has been at least temporarily free from hard landing.
“The innovation is of great importance for an economy to be prosperous in the future，” says Klaus Schwab， founder and executive president of World Economic Forum， “I will say that the traditional boundaries between‘developed’ and ‘less developed’ countries are going to vanish. Instead， we are going to use the standard of ‘being rich in innovation’ or ‘being poor in innovation’ more often to distinguish these countries.”
Xavier Sala-i-Martin， an economic professor from Columbia University and the chief advisor for the Global Competitiveness and Benchmark Network Research， says that the global economic situation went through great changes compared with one year ago as shown in the Report. “One year ago， the economic measures of most countries and regions featured firefighting and resisting the financial crisis， but now the leaders are eager to conduct radical structural reform to their countries’economy.”
Then， what are the details of the Report and what present and future can wee from it？
The Recovering America：
The recovery of U.S. economy is worth a lot of attention. As the Report shows， the U.S. has already turned the downward trend had been there for four years. Its ranking climbed to the fifth place， two places higher than last year.
The data from OECD says that the U.S. economy respectively increased by 1.1% and 1.7% in the first and second quarters of 2013. Meanwhile， the residential house market of the U.S. is recovering as well. The increasing investment in manufacturing， driven by the shale gas and oil， still keeps its upward trend. Obama’s financial policies have seen initial fruits as the monthly surplus for the first time visited the fiscal income and spending in years.
William Rhodes， former board chairman of Citibank and President of Global Consultancy Co.， Ltd says that the U.S. unemployment rate and fiscal deficit are decreasing year by year when the real estate market and stock market keep roaring. Rhodes says that the increasing output of oil and gas in America is an important factor for the stronger economy. The U.S. is less and less dependent on the imported energy and the lowered price of gas and oil will be a strong driving force for the U.S. economic development.
The IMF forecasts the U.S. GDP growth rate to be 1.75% in this year and 2.75% next year， showing a faster pace of recovery.
Thierry Geiger， deputy director of the Global Competitiveness and Benchmark Network Research and the cocompiler of the Report， says that the U.S. economy is obviously on the way of recovery. In his opinion， most of the indices of U.S. economy are pointing to the right directions， such as the higher GPD growth rate and the lower unem- ployment rate. A more positive appraisal is the higher ranking of U.S. in the competitiveness.
Prior to that， Dr. Henry Kissinger says that the real situation of the U.S. economic recovery is better than the data looks， because the basis of U.S. economy is going through a radical change.
“Ten years ago， the U.S. was still a 100% importer of energy and was limited by actions of figures and countries beyond our control，” Kissinger says，“Now the U.S. is turning into a country with big output of energy， which will generate great influence over the U.S. economy.”
Then， Kissinger believes that the comparatively cheaper oil can save many manufacturing enterprises from the problems of high cost， allowing the U.S. to turn into a manufacturer of low-cost industrial products. “Therefore， from the longer and more strategic perspective， the recovery of U.S. economy is good，” concludes Kissinger.
The Report says that the U.S. economy is back to the right path primarily because of the apparent results of the de-leveraging of the banking industry， which has positive influence over the stability and efficiency of the financial market. America’s ranking in the “development of financial market” increased from the 31st place three years ago to the 10th place at present. In addition， the U.S. still leads the world in launching innovative products and services.
But there are some negative factors that might affect the competitiveness of the U.S. economy， such as the “lack of trust into politicians” （50th place）， the“concern about whether the government can keep a certain distance from the private sector” （54th place）， and the “unnecessarily high governmental spending” （76th place）. Though the financial deficit of the U.S met the first reduction after the financial crisis， the stability of the macro economy is still the biggest disadvantage of this country. In the section of “macro economic situation”， the U.S. is only ranked at the 117th place.
The Fluttering Europe
When the U.S. economy is gradually recovering， the struggling Europe also saw a positive turning.
According to the OECD’s data， the 27 countries of EU and 17 members of Euro Zone saw the 0.3% quarter-onquarter increase of GDP in the second quarter of 2013， the first time the European economy got positive quarter-onquarter economic growth from the third quarter of 2011.
In this year’s rankings of competitiveness， Switzerland， Singapore and Finland still take the first， second and third places of the list like they did last year. Switzerland has been the most competitive country for five years by now. They are followed by Germany and U.S.， while Sweden’s ranking dropped 2 places to the sixth place. Holland is in the 8th place while Great Britain takes the 10th place.
Among the Top 10 countries or regions， the European countries， especially the Northern European countries， still keep strong competitiveness.
According to the Report， Switzerland’s leading power in innovation and efficiency of labor market ensure its championship in competitiveness. The excellent competitiveness of this coun- try comes from its good “infrastructure” （6th place）， advanced“financial market” （11th place） and stable “macro economic situation” （11th place）. Finland， Germany， Sweden， Netherlands and Great Britain are given high rankings in the innovation.
However， the Report also points out that many European countries， which have to struggle to solve the sovereign debt problem to avoid the disruption of the Euro Zone， did not pay enough attention to the in-depth problems that can affect their competitiveness. Concretely， Spain （35th place）， Italy （49th place）， Portugal （51st place） and Greece （91st place） need to solve the problem of low market efficiency. The Report says that these South European countries need to “keep promoting the innovation and expanding the fundraising channels to reduce the gap between them and other European countries in competitiveness”.
Thierry Geiger says that the worst time has been over and the risk of disrupted Euro Zone is gone as time passed by. In the past year， the bond interest gap between Germany and other Euro Zone members was greatly reduced. The “firefighting” policy must give way to the basic factors that can influence the competitiveness， such as low market efficiency and lack of innovative fundraising channels.
In addition， Geiger points out that the gap of competitiveness between North Europe and South Europe is widening. European countries are required to improve their productivity， recover the economic growth and create now job opportunities to address these structural problems. “In the Euro Zone there are still 19 million jobseekers longing for working opportunities，” Geiger says.
Kissinger thinks that the situation in Europe is much worse than in the U.S. because they are not a unified country and the statuses of countries vary greatly from each other. Rich countries are not willing to continuously fill the blank holes of poor countries while poor countries are reluctant to accept rich countries’ guidance and instruction to solve structural problems. These problems are hard to be solved unless a consolidated Europe is built. “So， I think that the recovery of Europe will be much slower than the U.S.，” Kissinger says.
The Emerging Asian Economies
Three Asian economies have jumped into the Top 10 of competitiveness， including Singapore （2nd place）， Hong Kong （7th place） and Japan （9th place）.
Singapore’s second place comes from， as the Report shows， the worldclass “system framework” （3rd place） and “infrastructure” （2nd place）. It possesses good roads， ports and airborne transportation facilities. In addition， its economy depends on good “macro economic environment and financial management” （18th place）. In 2012， the budget surplus of Singapore reached 5.7% of its GDP.
Chen Fengying， director of the China Modern International Relation Institute， compares the economic structure of Singapore with a small ship that“can be steered easily”. Capitalizing on the efficient labor division of the industrial chain， the opening of finance and the developed logistics， Singapore could always change itself along with the time to get rid of the crisis more quickly than others. This attribute is also a result of the government’s opening towards inadvance planning and law-based management.
In August， the Department of Trade and Industry of Singapore increases the expected economic growth rate of this year from 1%-3% to 2.5%-3.5%. In the second quarter of this year， Singapore saw the 15.5% economic growth rate， much better than the 1.7% growth rate in the previous quarter. The manufacturing’s good performance is an important factor as the industry saw the 32.1% quarter-on-quarter growth rate.
Hong Kong climbed from the 9th place to the 7th place in one year. The higher ranking is mainly attributed to the development of the “vigor and efficiency of the commodity market”（2nd place） and the “labor market”（3rd place）. In order to improve the competitiveness， Hong Kong is going to heighten its level of “higher education” （22nd place） and innovation （23rd place）. In this August， the Hong Kong SAR increased the expected economic growth rate from 1.5%-3.5% to 2.5%-3.5%.
Japan also made a higher rank this year， from the 10th place to the 9th place. Its “maturation degree of commerce” has been in the No. 1 place for five straight years. In addition， its power in “innovation” （5th place）， “spending on high-class R&D” （2nd place），“talents” （4th place） and “research facilities” （9th place） are the reasons for Japan to get into the list of ten most competitive countries in the world.
Actually， the number of registered patents per capita in Japan is ranked at the fourth place， and the Japanese enterprises are always devoted to the products and services with high value-added， taking the top level of the industrial chain.
However， the report shows that Japan’s “macro economic environment” is very bad （127th place）. In the past four years， the budget deficit of Japan kept fluctuating around 10% of its GDP， making Japan have higher budget deficit than most of the other countries in the world. The public debts of Japan also reached an unprecedented level 240% of its GDP.
Geiger says that Japan and Hong Kong are both very competitive but they face different challenges. For Japan， the biggest challenge is how to keep its place as a strong power of innovation. But Hong Kong desperately needs to improve its innovative power. Japan must cultivate the entrepreneurship and particularly needs to encourage those venturous small and middle enterprises.“But this is not easy，” Geiger says. “The tax， access barrier， difficulty in attracting foreign talents and the bloating debts of Japan pose great challenges for the Japanese government.”
The Stagnant China
Last year， China for the first time saw its ranking in competitiveness drop in five years. This year， China’s competitiveness still ranked No. 29 among all countries.
Geiger says that it is a great achievement for China to in the 30 most competitive countries in the past five years. Its massive size made every step of progress very hard. In addition， rankings of competitiveness can are always under debate to see whether it is meaningless or not.
“Changing a policy and economic structure in a country with 1.4 million people is much easier than doing the same things in a country with the population of 1.4 billion，” Geiger says. China could only realize the change bit by bit instead of making a thorough modification instantly. Therefore， the tiny ascent and descent of China’s ranking in competitiveness is very normal.
The Report says that main factors that prevent China from having higher competitiveness includes “corruption”（68th place）， “public creditability” （82nd place） and “commercial ethic standard”（54th place）. The report says that China needs to get rid of it reliance on cheap labor force. And its relative fragile banking industry can cause damages to the financial market.
In addition， the low ranking of China in the “commodity market efficiency” （61st place） encountered different hurdles from the limitations in investment， which greatly affects its competitiveness.
But the Report affirmatively says that China is very good at stabilizing its“macro economic environment” （10th place）. Its inflation dropped from 5.4% in 2012 to 3% in 2013. In addition， the budget deficit in China is always kept at bay as its public debts account for 22.9% of its GDP， among the lowest in the world. In addition， the total savings rate of China reached the amazing 50% of the GPD， but such a high saving rate also brings about more difficulties for the Chinese economy to shift from being driven by investment to being driven by consumption.
The report points out that the risk for China’s economy to encounter the hard landing has been gone as time went by. Rhodes says part of the saying of “going short of China’s economy”is too exaggerated. And the economic growth rate of China is likely to be maintained at between 7% and 7.5%.
The Falling Emerging Countries
When asked which will be new en- gines for the world’s economic development， Kissinger says that it is the BRIC that came to his mind first.
In 2013， the emerging economies’growth rate is slowed down， but their advantages remain there. Take the BRICS for example： China’s economic growth rate in Q1 and Q2 was respectively 7.7% and 7.5%， atop of all major economies in the world. Brazil saw the 0.6% economic growth rate in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter. India’s GDP had a 5% increase in H1， 2013 and the whole year’s growth rate is expected to be around 5.5%. Russia’s economic growth rate reached 1.6% in Q1 and 1.2% in Q2 while South Africa’s economic growth rate is expected to be around 2% this year.
China also leads other emerging economies in the competitiveness. In the list， South Africa takes the 53rd place， Brazil， 56th place， India， 60th place， and Russia， 64th place.
It is worthwhile to mention that the competitiveness of India has been falling for four years. Its gap from China has been widened from 8 seats in 2006 to today’s 31 seats.
This is because， as the Report says， India went through worsening “macro economic environment” （110th place）. In 2012， the inflation rate and public deficit of China takes close to 10% of the GDP in China. Actually， the risk of India’s sovereign debt default is much higher than the previous year.
Geiger says that everyone was bullish on India’s potential five years ago， but the potential is hard to be realized in the light of the current situation. When China is trying keep the growth rate at around 10%， India only made it that high once in the past 10 years and now it is struggling to keep stabilizing the GDP growth rate at 5%. “In this country where a quarter of the population is still living in extremely poverty， the investors are loosing the confidence， patience and hope，” Geiger says.