Parade Diplomacy

As Barack Obama became the first US president to spectate at one of India’s annual Republic Day military parades， held on January 26， many interpreted this as a sign of a deepening of ties between the two countries.

Following India’s grand parade， Pakistani media reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping might be the guest of honor at Pakistan’s upcoming national day military parade， which will take place on March 23， a move which some analysts have concluded is a direct response to Obama’s appearance in Delhi.

For many， military parades， and their guest lists， always convey important geopolitical messages. This may be why China might also be planning one of its own.

Rumored proposals for a People’s Liberation Army parade to mark the end of World War II were first reported on January 23 in the Hong Kong-based newspaper Wen Wei Po. The report revealed that China will hold a grand military parade on September 3， the date of Japan’s surrender in 1945 which， in 2014， China officially declared “Victory Day of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression.” September 3， 2015 marks the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II in Asia.

When asked about the planned parade， Hua Chunying， spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry， without confirming that a military parade would take place， said that China， like many nations worldwide， is planning to hold “commemorative events” in order “to safeguard world peace and the postwar order.”

Despite the lack of official confirmation， an article published on the official social media account of the People’s Daily， the Communist Party’s official newspaper， on the need for a military parade this year， indicates strong support in the highest ranks of both the Party and the military for such an event.

China typically holds a grand military parade on its National Day （October 1） once every 10 years or so. The last grand parade was held on October 1， 2009 to mark the 60th anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

A parade on September 3， if held， would be the first military parade conducted independently of the official National Day holiday， and the first such parade since Chinese President Xi Jinping took office in 2013.

Deterrent

In explaining its argument for a military parade， the People’s Daily article bluntly stated that it would serve to deter Tokyo from “challenging the postwar order，” something Chinese leaders and diplomats have repeatedly stressed in policymaking regarding Japan.

For China， “challenging the postwar order” refers to efforts currently being made in Tokyo to scrap Japan’s pacifist constitution and play down， if not deny， wartime atrocities committed by its imperial army during WWII， including the Rape of Nanking， called the Nanjing Massacre in China， and the sexual enslavement of as many as 200，000 “comfort women” in occupied territories. The center-right administration of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been widely condemned in China for its attempts to bolster Japanese nationalism and defer responsibility for war crimes C a highly charged issue in Japan’s relations with most of its Asian neighbors.

Competing Chinese and Japanese territorial claims to the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku island chain， which has escalated into a major dispute between the two countries， have also been framed as an effort by Japan to cling to its imperial wartime legacy.

In recent years， the Abe administration has drawn much international criticism for what many call “historical revisionism.” The most recent incident， in early January 2015， saw Japan’s foreign ministry request that the USbased education company McGraw-Hill delete a passage containing a reference to “comfort women” from a text on world history used by Californian high schools， a request rejected by the publisher. In the disputed passage， the textbook states that Japan’s imperial army “forcibly recruited， conscripted and dragooned as many as 200，000 women” to serve in military brothels.

As Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will also attend several international events commemorating the 70th anniversary of the war’s end， he is expected to speak publicly to an international audience. Many observers are speculating whether or not Abe will revise the Murayama Statement， an apology issued by former Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama in 1995 during the 50th anniversary commemorations of Japan’s 1945 surrender.

In his first press conference of 2015 on January 5， Abe reassured reporters that his administration would express “remorse” for Ja- pan’s role in WWII. But for China， and other victims of Japan’s wartime aggression， Abe’s emphasis on “remorse，” which to some simply means regret that the war led to Japan’s defeat， rather than an intention to apologize for atrocities committed by Japanese troops， is too ambiguous， and a major step back from the country’s previous official stance.

According the People’s Daily article， as Japan has shown “persistence” in “challenging the postwar order，” the only way to stop Japan from moving further to the right is to“show [China’s] own military might and“demonstrate its determination.”

“Those who challenge the postwar order pose a threat to China’s core national interests and will be deemed enemies of China，”read the article.

The parade’s message， according to the People’s Daily article， is not only for international consumption. “The military parade... will boost the pride and confidence of the Chinese people regarding the country’s security，”it continued.

Political

According to Luo Yuan， a retired army major general and deputy secretary general of the China Military Science Society of the People’s Liberation Army （PLA）， a September parade would also serve to boost the unity of the army and the people under the current leadership.

In the past year， China has extended its anti-corruption campaign into the ranks of the previously untouchable PLA， which has witnessed the fall of more than a dozen highlevel military officials， an unprecedented purge of the country’s military elite. As the anti-graft campaign is expected to expand further into the PLA， a grand parade is seen as being both helpful in re-establishing the PLA’s public image and also re-asserting the Party’s absolute control over China’s military.

Some have even seen the parade as a chance to build bridges with Taiwan. In 1945， Japan’s China command surrendered to Nationalist forces led by Kuomintang （KMT） party leader Chiang Kai-shek， alongside whom Mao Zedong’s communist Red Army fought a guerilla war against the Japanese from 1937 onwards. The surrender marked the end of WWII in Asia （also referred to in China as the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression， or the Second Sino-Japanese War）， and the beginning of the Chinese Civil War， which ended in 1949 with the defeat of the Nationalists， who fled to Taiwan， and the establishment of the People’s Republic of China by the victorious Communists.

Consequently， there have been calls on the mainland to invite both KMT leaders and Taiwanese WWII veterans to attend the parade.

Invitations

So far， Chinese officials are tight-lipped about plans for the parade. As such an event， if it goes ahead， would likely be the first time that China has invited foreign leaders to attend a military parade since 1956， speculation over the guest list has been rife.

Currently， Russian President Vladimir Putin is the only foreign leader who is expected to attend the parade with any certainty. Kai Lei， a senior Wen Wei Po reporter， told Hong Kong’s Phoenix TV that he learned from Russian sources that a detachment of the Russian army would participate， though no official source has confirmed this.

Earlier， on January 21， Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a press conference in Moscow that it has already been confirmed that Chinese President Xi Jinping and around 20 foreign leaders will attend the WWII Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on May 9， 2015. Although Putin returning this visit in September for China’s equivalent commemoration remains a source of speculation， it is widely believed that both leaders will exchange visits around key events marking the anniversary.

China has also refrained from giving any hints as to whether the US， China’s most important wartime ally， will have its leadership represented at such an event. Given the status of the US-Japan strategic alliance， whether or not to invite the US has generally been avoided by those debating the guest list for China’s hypothetical parade C a glaring omission that demonstrates just how tricky these waters might prove for the leadership to navigate.

According to Luo Yuan， another major reason behind China holding a military parade is to remind the rest of the world of China’s role in WWII， but also demonstrate its gratitude to its worldwide allies. However， a common feature of commemorative events relating to WWII， in Europe at least， has been the presence on the rostrum of leaders from both sides of the conflict. This has led to furious debate in China over whether or not， in line with international norms， Japan’s leadership should be invited to take part in tributes to those who fell in the conflict.

For some observers， China should follow European precedent， which sees Germany as an active participant in most commemorations of WWII. Lian Degui， an analyst with the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies， told the South China Morning Post that not inviting Abe would be not only be a breach of diplomatic protocol， it would also create an impression that China intended to snub Japan.

Other experts argue for a more cautious approach， especially given the tensions between the two countries. Some have expressed concern that Japan would interpret such an invitation as an attempt to openly embarrass the Japanese leadership. Others have speculated that this is the precise reason why a signficant proportion of the Chinese public appear to be in favor of inviting Abe to attend the putative parade on September 3. According to an online survey conducted by the online edition of nationalist newspaper the Global Times， 86 percent of respondents agreed that China should invite Abe to observe the parade.

When Shinzo Abe， during a January visit to Israel， said that Japan will “never allow such tragedies [as the Holocaust] to be repeated，” he was making these comments in reference to the upcoming 70th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz concentration camp. His words were seized upon with much cynicism in South Korean and Chinese media， where commentators argued that Abe should confront Japan’s own wartime history， and save such comments for those countries where Japanese troops committed their own wartime atrocities.

So far， with even the existence of a planned September parade itself unconfirmed， it is unclear how China will handle the myriad delicate issues surrounding it. Given that a military parade is first and foremost about sending a political message， the precise plan， and its execution， will be a major focus for China’s foreign policy experts in 2015.