McKinsey: China contrib utes 20% of global flows

时间:2022-07-20 12:26:16

According to a report McKinsey issued on April 14, China ranked No. 25 among 131 countries in the latest survey of global connectedness index. Compared with the result in 1995, China’s ranking improved by five places, showing an increasing connectedness of this country.

China stands ahead most countries in the flow of goods and finance as it ranked respectively No. 5 and No. 6 in the list. The general flows of goods, service and finance of China amounted to US$5.1 trillion, taking 20% of the total value in the world and equaling twice the proportion of China’s GDP in the world.

Globally, the cross-border economic activities are having an increasing weight. In 2012, the total flows of goods, service and finance hit US$26 trillion, taking 36% of the global GDP and 50% higher than the total global economic volume 20 years ago. These cross-border flows helped the world see the 15%-25% GDP growth in the past ten years. The figure might be doubled in the next ten years.

McKinsey said in its report that the Chinese financial market, in spite of being strictly regulated, still took the sixth place in the connectedness of finance. This means that the Chinese central bank and other financial institutions are ceaselessly moving out the capital when this country is attracting a lot of foreign capital.

From 1985 to 2000, the FDI into China increased twenty-fold. Presently, the FDI took 92% of the total volume of the capital inflow of China. In the past ten years, China began to use its foreign exchange reserves to invest overseas. Meanwhile, the Chinese government is also encouraging the domestic enterprises to make overseas investment. It is expected that the total foreign investment from China would be close to US$100 billion in 2014.

However, China apparently lagged in the flows of service, people and data. Take the flow of people for example: it only ranked No. 93 in terms of the longtime immigrants. The report attributed the result to the strict immigrant policies and the linguistic hurdles. In the shortterm flows of people, China had a much better performance. In 2011, the number of overseas students from China took 20% of all the students studying out of their homeland. The proportion of Chinese tourists making overseas trips also increased by 13% annually, twice the one in other emerging countries.

Even though China has the largest number of Internet users, its cross-border Internet traffic and other communication data are smaller than 32 countries in the world. The language might be the reason, and the strict policies about data flow in China might explain this as well.

29% of carbon emission in China comes from “exportation”

In 2013, the imports and exports value of China exceeded US$4 trillion, making China the world’s largest trader instead of the U.S. Meanwhile, its emission of CO2 is also the largest in the world, but about 30% of the carbon emission in China is a result of the consumer goods sold in other countries.

On May 15, The Report of Low-Carbon Economy Development 2014 was published. Xue Jinjun, editor-in-chief of this Report, said that the global carbon emission amounted to 28850 Mt in 2009. Though China took the largest proportion of the carbon emission, North America is the area with the largest carbon consumption. It took 23% of the carbon consumption of the world, three percent higher than that of China.

The Report said that the difference happened because 20%-25% carbon emission comes from the international trade and production. In 2009, the hidden carbon emission in the international trade took 20% of the global carbon emission. The hidden carbon emission mainly comes from the production and exportation of Britain, Australia, Russia and Indian and is consumed by North America and Euro Zone. Among them, North America is the largest importer of hidden carbon emission (1111Mt) while China is the largest exporter of hidden carbon emission (1975Mt).

“29% of the carbon emission in China is caused by the consumption in other countries. In comparison, 33% of carbon emission in Euro Zone and 17% in North America happened in other continents,” said Zhao Zhongxiu, vice principal of Foreign Trade and Economics University. In consideration of the influence of the international trade, the gap in the carbon intensity in different countries and regions are to be reduced. The gap is bigger in terms of the carbon emission per capita. “The carbon emission for consumption of a person in North America equals four persons’carbon emission in China or six people in Britain, Australia, Russia and India.

The report said that various countries should put the consumption’s influence over carbon emission into consideration for fixing and carrying out the emission-reduction policies and tools even though the emission from production is still the core.

“In the Governmental Working Report of this year, the State Council of China highlighted the upgrade of export with strategic importance,” Xue Jinjun said. He recommended the further optimization of the exports structure to control the export of products with serious pollution, high energy and resource con-sumption, and encouraging the “clean”departments to expand production and exportation through policy support and favorable conditions.

Hu Tao, director of China Project of the World Wide Fund for Nature in the U.S., said that China should eliminate the “environmental deficit” as soon as possible and gradually turn the “exportoriented trade policy” to “clean trade policy”.

Xue Jinjun said that the calculation of carbon emission had an increasing significance for the negotiation of international climate. It could distribute the responsibility for carbon emission among producers and consumers, with which the global consumption pattern can be changed for the real reduction of carbon emission.

In addition, the carbon emission per capita in China has hit six tons, higher than the world’s average level. It is expected that the level in China could surpass the one of EU before 2020. In the international negotiations, China needs to take out a stronger promise than reducing the carbon emission.

Slowed PPP growth means weaker competitiveness of China

A recent research from World Bank showed that China would replace the U.S. as the world’s largest economy based on the purchasing power parity (PPP) in 2014.

The report listed that it cost US$50 thousand to buy a car in China, while the same car only costs US$40 thousand in the U.S. due to the favorable taxation conditions. Therefore, the purchasing power for car in China is only 80% of that of U.S. However, it only costs US$4 in China for haircutting while in the U.S., it costs US$20. So, the purchasing power for haircutting in this U.S. is 500% of that in the U.S.

However, the comparison was heavily criticized and sneered by the Chinese Internet users. Even some experts cannot agree to this simple and one-way comparison of the World Bank.

Wang Kun, macroeconomic analyst of Foundation Securities, said that the research of the World Bank underestimated the inflation level and price factors of Chinese economy. The price factors are always heavily debated in China and the inflation ratio is around 2% and 3%, but the stress people felt is bigger than that.

The comprehensive purchasing power of people does not depend on which kinds of products they buy. It has no big meaning to calculate the purchasing power by converting the prices of products and services.

An anonymous macroeconomic analyst said that the purchasing power in China should not be based on the foreign exchange rate and trade conolidation; instead, the price of hamburger of McDonald’s and KFC in China and other countries should be used to view the levels of income and foreign trade. This is a popular way of figuring out PPP in foreign countries, but there is still a problem in China since KFC and McDonald’s take a small portion in the catering industry of China.

This expert believes that wealth increase in a country or region is determined by its GDP. In spite of the“uselessness” of the World Bank’s PPP, a group of data is still worthy of attention: in the past five years, the PPP of China increased by 146%, while GDP was 1.81 times as high as five years before, meaning that the increase of GDP in China is faster than the one of PPP.

The gap shows that the global competitiveness of China is lowered and the comparative advantages have been shrinking. This is a representation of the slower growth of China’s labor productivity and its inability to increase the efficiency along with the wages.

Therefore, to improve the productivity, control the inflation and avoid the excessively fast increase of foreign exchange rate are the tasks needing reflections and insights behind China’s first place in PPP.

Fresh and raw products into Amazon’s camp

Chinese local online retailers JD and Tmall successively began to sell fresh and raw foods on their websites. Even express company SF was involved into this area. The development trend of the market of fresh and raw foods in China has unsettled Amazon.

On May 16, Amazon, which entered the Chinese market ten years ago through acquiring , turned to that maneuver again. It announced the spending of US$20 million buying shares of Yummy77, a Shanghai-based website selling fresh and raw foods.

There is no confirmation about how many shares Amazon had bought. Steve Frazier, Amazon’s global vice president, said that Amazon only took “a small part of shares” and Yummy77 still remained independent.

According to the public information, Yummy77 was founded in February 2013. It mainly sells and delivers fresh fruits, eggs, poultry, seafood, dairy products, snacks, instant foods, vegetables, grains and oils to people in Shanghai and surrounding areas.

Frazier sees China as the “experimental field of ecommerce”. He said that the huge market in China brought a lot of opportunities, and Amazon is learning of the features of the Chinese market.

Presently, Amazon takes a small share in the ecommerce market of China. The data from China Ecommerce Research Center shows that Tmall, a B2C website under Alibaba, takes 50.1% of the B2C market. It is followed by JD which has a 22.4% market share. Amazon is the fifth largest ecommerce dealer in China with a 2.7% market share, only 0.1 percent higher than that of Yihaodian.

Zhang Saying, vice president of Amazon China, said that Amazon China was to turn to “elite products and clients”in the future. It will be focused on highquality products and services instead of growing its size. Last year, Amazon China made a determined step forward to develop in the wine market. The present goal is undoubtedly the market of fresh and raw foods.

Similar services were started much earlier in the U.S. Amazon Fresh initially targeted Seattle only, where Amazon is headquartered. As of 2013, it stepped into San Francisco and Southern California.

Then why did not Amazon do to the fresh and raw foods in China like it did in the U.S. market?

“It is a professional business to sell, store and deliver fresh products,” said Mi Ping, CEO of Yummy77. This might explain Amazon’s motivations. Mi Ping said that even Shanghai had regional demands and products, such as the aquatic products from Chongming Island, bamboo shoots from Anji and so on. There are strict requirements for storing and transporting fresh and raw foods. Therefore, Yummy77 is very cautious in expanding. However, Mi Ping said that Yummy77 would extend its arms to other cities, even though it plans to do this without the aid of Amazon’s logistics system.

As for how to use the US$20-million investment from Amazon, Mi Ping gave out no answers, but it is widely speculated that the investment would be used in the cross-region expansion.

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