时间：2022-07-05 07:46:03
The 3rd plenum of the 18th CPC Congress completely ended with a new document， which detailed the ambitious plans of China’s Communist Party about the reform.
The document， titled as the Decisions of Central CPC Committee for Several Key Topics of Deepening the Reform （“Decisions” for short）， almost covers all the fields where changes are needed. There is plenty of information， telling the market that the reform is going to be more universal， comprehensive and groundbreaking than expected. It is widely believed that the reform plan is the most dynamic and constructive in recent years.
The stock market was obviously inspired by the plan as the Shanghai Stock Exchanged closed with a 1.68% increase on November 15， the day the plan was issued. It is a sharp contrast with the stock price when the Communiqué was published three days ago.
One year before that day， Xi Jinping was appointed as the Secretarygeneral of CPC and formed a new leading group with Li Keqiang and other five core members. In one year， he has established his authority and put the political situation of China under control. He and his government were expected to push China to a new high level.
The Exciting Changes
Several changes could be detected in this plenum and considered to be the signal that reform is really pending. The key points of the “Decisions” and the entire document were published at a quarter to seven on November 15， only three days after the conclusion of the plenum. Previously， the related document could not be published until one week later.
In addition， new methods were used to spread the news. “The Weibo preceded the press release”. This is how the government-sponsored media made the report. And People’s Daily had its entire Page Two covered with the analysis of the third plenum， which was unprecedented in the previous reports.
The “Decisions” also contained many fewer “empty and conventional descriptions” which are boring and meaningless. “The plan was comparatively novel and more meaningful than the other government documents before it. Most of the contents were worth comprehending，” said an anonymous governmental official.
But the biggest changes happened during the three days between the Communiqué and the “Decisions”. The Communiqué， which is the summary of the third plenum and the plan， was generally considered to be a red tape without any real meanings. But the publication of the “Decisions” completely change that viewpoint. Scholars， economists and foreign media all claimed that the depth and breadth of the reform plan were “out of many people’s expectations”.
Liu Shengjun， vice dean of CEIBUS Lujiazui Institute of International Finance， once said to CBF that “the Communiqué had no surprise， not matching the market expectation. So I do not hold too many expectations over the‘Decisions’”. However， when the “Decisions” indeed came out， he changed his mind and said that “Xi （Jinping） and Li（Keqiang） are the reformers having visions and keeping promises”. “Nearly all the sectors in which reforms were called for are touched： the commitment to the Constitution， the return of rights to the council， the independence of local justice， the registration for IPO， the private banks， the decentralization of rights， the constraints over government， the land reform， the Hukou system and the family planning… Now I believe in the China Dream！”
Liu Shengjun was known for his visions for the reform. He once posted a popular message telling his “Top 10 wishes for the future” covering the food safety， house price， environmental protection， income gap， living standard， stock market and social equality. Now， this young scholar firmly believed that“his wishes could come true had the‘Decisions’ been implemented”. The new document， in his opinion， is a perfect answer Xi and Li offered after their one-year governance. It has the historical meaning which could match the third plenum of the 11th CPC Congress， when the decision about the reform and opening up was made.
“The outside was holding high expectations over the third plenum as they are expecting the new government to make something strikingly new，”Liu says. “The folks generally believe that the social conflicts have already accumulated to a certain level and the central government should not let slip of this chance. That’s why people were disappointed by the vague and imprecise Communiqué.”
The Man behind the Reform
It is understandable for people to have become impatient for the reform. Scholars and foreign media all made that “mistake”， but they are now pleased with the more detailed “Decisions”. Moreover， they could not miss the change in the power structure of the central government Xi Jinping has taken hold of great power.
Two new agencies were founded the National Security Council and the Central Leading Team of Deepening the Reform （Central Leading Team）. The National Security Council is responsible for the national security and is likely to be led by Xin Jinping himself.
The Leading Reform Team was a counterpart to the Commission for Structural Reforms which was founded in 1982. However， the latter was a subsidiary department to the State Council while the Central Leading Team is definitely a body with even more authority than the State Council since it is to enhance the CPC’s power of “taking an overview of the situation， coordinating and promoting the reform comprehensively and implementing the policies”. Its tasks cover the politics， economy， culture， society and ecological civilization.
If Xi Jinping is indeed taking the roles as the leaders of the National Security Council and Central Leading Team as expected， he would be the man with five major powers of national security， military force， foreign affairs， safeguard stability and intelligence， making him the most powerful leader in China after Deng Xiaoping.
Xi’s dominant authority has been shown in more than the formation. He himself made the explanations about the “Decisions” to the entire council. And it was said that Xi was the leading drafter of the “Decisions”.
Actually， a look back at the one-year governance of Xi Jinping revealed his“path” to the top of power： he soon established the authority in the army and resolvedly wiped out the corruption. He appointed people whose competency and ability he knew well to important positions. Xi Jinping is building a leading team based on his own ideals. As he is gaining more power and two new administrative bodies were founded， the future changes in important positions could be expected.
Apart from the HR arrangement， Xi Jinping also put forward the con- cept of “China Dream” after several inspections， speeches and researches. He followed the style of Mao Zedong to propose two “must” requirements， showing his resolution and ambition to lay a foundation for the next thirty years of prosperity and glory.
Though someone has expressed the concerns about the “over-centralized power within him”， more people believe that the current reform is definitely going to be furiously resisted by the vested interest groups while the weak voice of the public can provide enough support. At this time， it is necessary to have a leader like Xi Jinping to have unparalleled authority to promote the reform.
Prof. Xiao Gongqin with Shanghai Normal University pointed out that Xi’s climbing to the top of power is a great thing. “Xi represents the arrival of the golden age of the new authoritarianism，” he said. “The centralization of power is very important at this moment. China needs a strong man， a strong leader with both the reputation and the authority to promote the reform.”
Zheng Yongnian， head of East Asia Institute of National University of Singapore， said that each grand reform was pushed by a man with great authority. The latest example in China was Deng Xiaoping. Xi Jinping’s consolidation of his power will further promote the progress of the reform in China. In Zheng’s opinion， it is necessary for China to have a man with centralized power at the beginning of the reform since the system in China is incomplete and the vested interest group is strong enough.
The Unexpected Reform
The “Decisions” consists of 20 thousand words， cover 15 fields， list 60 concrete tasks， and propose six goals concerning the market-oriented economy， political democracy， cultural advance， harmonious society and ecological civilization. It also makes it clear that decisive results should be gained in important fields by 2020.
Li Xunlei， chief economist of Haitong Securities， said that the “Decisions”established the importance of marketoriented economy and the relation between the market and government as the former preceded the latter. The role of the market in the distribution of “resources” is to be lifted from “supporting role” to “decisive effect”. In addition， the non-public economy was upgraded to be the fundamental for the marketoriented reform along with the public economy as inviolable property rights. The mixed ownership economy is to be boosted with the non-state-owned investors are to be allowed to have shares of the state-owned projects.
In Liu Shengjun’s opinion， the reform to the future economic system is the core of the reform； and the core of economic reform is to handle the relation between the government and market.
The “Decisions” had made systematic illustrations to the reforms in the economic fields. For the fiscal and tax reform， the government proposed the public and transparent fiscal budget， decided to enhance the authority of office of the central government and resolved to improve the tax system. Particularly， the government put forward the legislation of property tax and decided to promote the reform to the resource tax and environmental protection tax.
The next part is about the land reform. Previously， the government requisition is needed when turning the collectively-owned land in the rural area into the construction land. During that process there were problems like low reimbursement for farmers and the unreasonable distribution of interest of transfer. The “Decisions” put forward the market of construction land universal for the urban and rural areas， allowing the collectively-owned land in countryside to share the same access to the market rules， as well as the same price and right with the land in cities. This reduces the scope of land requisition and improves the individual income. Meanwhile， the peasants are to be given more rights of property， including the contractual right of land， the usufruct of homestead and so on.
The reform to the resident registration， commonly known as Hukou， is an integral part of the package plans about the urbanization promoted by the central government. The peasants who go to cities for work and living will be completely included into the urban housing and social security system. The pension insurance and medical insurance in countryside can be connected to the urban social security system. But the Hukou policy has not seen too many changes. The limitation in the middlesized cities is eased while the same thing won’t happen in big cities so as to control the population of these cities.
The price reform includes the changes to the prices of water， petroleum， natural gas， electricity and telecom services. More competition is welcomed in these fields and the governmental function is limited to the important public utilities， commonweal services and network-based natural monopoly.
The highlights in the financial reform are the most attention-worthy. More participants are allowed with the relaxed limitations over the private capital for the financial industry. Concretely， the qualified private investors are to be allowed to set up small banks and other financial institutions with the enhanced regulations. In addition， the government and industry are going to enrich the market products， to promote the registration for the stock issuance， to boost the equity financing through several channels and to standardize the securities market. The second item about the registration for the stock issuance is expected to be a solution to cure the insufficient supply in the stock market， the abnormally high PE ratio and the financial corruption.
As for the administrative reform， the negative list management is highlighted and promoted to the national level. A unified market access is to be implemented， meaning that all economic bodies can get into the fields out of the negative list. The new rule is applicable to foreign investors as well， which will facilitate the establishment of foreign companies.
Apart from the economic field， the changes in the political and social fields are also attractive. Among them， the system of education through labor is to be removed； the “one-child” policy is to be relaxedby allowing a couple with the wife or husband being the only child to have more than one child. The former is to remove the shackle over the masses， while the latter， according to Ma Jun， chief economist of Deutsche Bank Greater China， is to improve the GDP growth rate by 0.2% and save China from the reduction of labor force.
Implementation as the Key
Foreign media believed that the reform led by Xi Jinping is worthy of expectation， but the key still lies with the implementation.
Liu Shengjun also told CBF that the biggest problem of China in the past is not that there were no reforms； instead， it is the failure to carry out the reforms as planned. Early in 1997， the stateowned enterprises were said to quit the competitive fields. In 1999， it was said that no administrative levels should be applied to enterprises and their leaders. In 2012 the government decided to initiate the financial reform… Unfortunately， most of these ended without expected outcomes.
“The reform of this time is special because it highlights the organizational guarantee as shown by the establishment of the Central Leading Team. How many maneuvers this team can use and how much power can be brought into play need to be watched. Previously， the central government established many similar organizations too. We cannot expect the situation to be changed within one night.
In his opinion， the Commission for Structural Reforms once collected a group of governmental officials advocating the reform. In comparison， the Central Leading Team is not an independent governmental department. Instead， it is more like a coordinating organization， assuming the tasks of toplevel design. But the implementations are given to the various departments. Then there might be problems： can these departments， and are they willing to do， as the top-level plans？
Liu said that it is better to recruit the scholars and specialists having studied and advocated the reform in the society.
Even though the “Decisions”contained a lot of excitement， disappointments still exist. This lies with the reform to the state-owned enterprises. Even though it innovated the concept of “state-owned capital” and encouraged the development of mixed ownership economy， the reform to stateowned enterprises are still staying in the period of “changing policies”， which is now met with the resistance of mindset and interest group.
Liu Shengjun also said that the reform is to damage the vested interest group. In order to have the reform avoid being abducted by the interest group， the government must give the society more freedom of speech， letting the politicians hear the voices and appeals of the public， which could be the weapon to force vested interest group to retreat.
“After one year of staying at the top level of the governance， Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang gave out an answer with the‘Decisions’ beyond expectations， but the reform has just begun，” Liu Shengjun said.