new hints

“The Chinese People’s Liberation Army [PLA] is not a troop of Boy Scouts with spears，” Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang told reporters on March 5， defending Beijing’s decision to increase its defense budget by 12.2 percent to 808.2 billion yuan （US$131.6bn） in 2014. The budget increase was announced by Xinhua News Agency on March 5.

Premier Li Keqiang said during the annual session of the National People’s Congress （NPC）， China’s highest legislative body， that the government would “strengthen research on national defense and the development of new and high-technology weapons and equipment，” and “enhance border， coastal and air defenses.”

China’s military budget has been steadily growing for the past two decades， and this is the fourth consecutive year in which it has witnessed a double-digit hike， though as a percentage of China’s GDP ， it is expected to remain unchanged at 1.3 to 1.4 percent. Meanwhile， China’s military budget is equal to about 21 percent of the US’ annual military spending， and China’s per capita military spending is roughly one-fifth of Japan’s.

In the past， China has defended the growth of its military spending rather passively. But this year， under the new leadership fronted by President Xi Jinping， Beijing has become more confident and forthright in declaring its “proactive” approach in both its defense and foreign policies， while in the meantime stressing China’s continued adherence to its long-established concept of a “peaceful rise.” In the 2014 government work report， Premier Li reiterated the country’s pledge to work with neighboring countries in creating an environment of peace and stability in the region.

Strategy Shift

“Under no circumstances will we sacrifice core national interests，”President Xi Jinping said at a meeting with NPC delegates from the PLA on March 11， days after the announcement of the defense budget increase. Xi urged the military to become “combat-ready” and swiftly build the capability to “fight and win wars.”

Xi has made similar remarks on various occasions throughout his first year in power， distinguishing himself from previous Chinese leaders.

Since Deng Xiaoping， the late Chinese leader and architect of China’s economic reform， made an overall assessment of China’s international environment in 1985 that concluded that a major war was “unlikely，”China has adopted a rather passive defense policy. Although military spending started to increase in the late 1990s， the focus has been on China’s capacity to defend her borders.

But as China has become the world’s second-largest economy with the second-largest military spending， the decade-long principle of taoguang yanghui “concealing capacities and binding one’s time，” has become increasingly unpopular among the Chinese public.

After assuming power， Xi quickly launched various new concepts， including “building maritime power” and “the Chinese dream，” all of which suggest that China will be taking a more proactive stance in defense.

In the meantime， China’s strategists have also begun to reevaluate the international environment. The Study Times， a journal published by China’s Central Party School， for example， has published a series of articles elaborating on China’s new “proactive” strategy throughout 2013 and early 2014. A common conclusion of these articles is that， due to the threat from regional territorial disputes， rising right-wing nationalism in Japan and the US’s pivot towards Asia， while a fullscale war with a major country remains unlikely， smaller-scale conflicts are far from impossible.

At a press conference at the NPC， when asked about his response to the view that China is becoming more assertive in handling its disputes with neighboring countries， Foreign Minster Wang Yi stressed that the general situation in China’s “neighborhood” is both positive and stable.

“China has been interacting with its neighbors for thousands of years. And all along， we have valued harmonious relations and treated others with sincerity. When others respect us， we respect them even more，” he said.

“As for China’s territorial and maritime disputes with some countries， China would like to carry out equal-footed consultation and negotiation， and properly handle them by peaceful means on the basis of respecting historical facts and international law. There will not be any change to this position. We will never bully smaller countries， yet we will never accept unreasonable demands from them. On issues of territory and sovereignty， China’s position is firm and clear. We will not take anything that isn’t ours， but we will defend every inch of territory that belongs to us，” said Wang.

In its latest article on the subject， published on January 27， the journal argued that the idea of the Chinese dream implies “a new military thinking，” which will need to be adapted to the “great revival of the Chinese nation，” serving to “protect national development and secure China’s major power status.”

“China’s goal is to become the major active party in the international landscape of the Asia-Pacific region， instead of being passive，”said Ding Pu， senior commentator of the Hong Kong-based Phoenix TV. “As the largest country in the region， China sees this as its natural right.”

Responding to a question concerning China’s growing military power， Fu Ying， spokesperson for the NPC， said China as a major power is responsible for regional peace and security.

But “based on our history and experience， we believe that peace can only be maintained through strength，” she told a press conference. Fu said China， whose military policy is “entirely defensive in nature，” has “never treated any country as an enemy or a threat.”

“Proving Ground”

The strategy shift’s most direct impact is upon the bilateral relationship between China and the US. Ever since China launched its policy of Reform and Opening-up in 1979， and economic growth became the primary goal of both its domestic and foreign policies， China’s foreign policy has largely been centered around securing a close relationship with the US， China’s biggest trade partner.

In the past， Chinese officials and experts have frequently labeled the Sino-US relationship China’s “most important bilateral relationship.”In some cases， Chinese leaders are seen to be pushing for better relations with the US. Most recently， for example， when Wang Yang， China’s vice-Premier visited the US in July 2013， he likened bilateral ties to the relationship between “husband and wife.”

But with a new assessment of its international environment and its military capabilities， China has adopted a new understanding of the bilateral relationship. One result of this understanding is that the concept of a “new type of major country relationship，” first raised by Xi in a 2012 speech in Washington.

By emphasizing that the new type of relationship should be based on “mutual respect” and “tolerance of each other’s social systems and core interests，” China appears to demand an equal status in the bilateral relationship， at least in the Asia-Pacific region.

While Washington has not rejected the concept openly， it is far from ready and willing to accept China as an equal-status player in Asia-Pacific. Viewing China as a challenging rival， the US has stepped up its military presence in the region， and is determined to remain dominant there.

The issue was a focal point of the high-profile news conference held by Wang Yi， China’s foreign minister， during this year’s NPC session， in which Wang summarized China’s diplomacy in 2013， and outlines its direction for 2014.

Calling on the two countries to engage in “positive interaction” to achieve “peace and stability，” Wang again emphasized that the bilateral relationship should be a “new type of major-country relationship，”and that the Asia-Pacific region should be “the proving ground for our commitment to build a new model of major-country relations， rather than a competitive arena.”

This “proving ground” appears to be a major scale back from vicePremier Wang Yang’s earlier “husband-and-wife” metaphor. Some analysts even interpret it as a warning that China is not afraid to confront the US， at least in its own backyard.

‘Multi-Pivot’

Alongside its adjusted understanding of its relationship with the US， China’s new leadership has called for a “global and strategic perspective” in its foreign policy， and has carried out what some have called a dipomatic “multi-pivot” in the past year.

“China’s diplomacy in 2013 was broader in horizon and more active in conduct，” said Foreign Minister Wang Yi in the news conference. According to Wang， over the past year President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang visited 22 countries， received 65 foreign heads of state and government， and reached around 800 cooperation agreements with other countries.

The most notable “pivot” in China’s foreign policy was its closer ties with Russia， a relationship dubbed a “quasi-alliance” by many Chinese strategists. “The Sino-Russian relationship has reached its historical high in 2013，” said Wang. Due to Russia’s confrontation with the West in Ukraine over the Crimea crisis， analysts believe that Russia may move closer to China in the future， though others argue that a more hawkish Moscow may not be an ideal international partner.

Another key component of China’s multi-pivot strategy launched in 2013 is the so-called “peripheral diplomacy，” as Chinese leaders have raised various initiatives to seek further economic integration with neighboring countries， including the “Silk Road economic belt”initiative in central Asia， the “maritime Silk Road” with Southeast Asian countries， and a similar economic belt initiative proposed to India and other South Asian countries.

It is believed that China’s peripheral diplomacy is designed both to counter the influence of the US’s pivot policy in Asia， as well as to seek more potential economic development. In his speech during the NPC session， Premier Li pledged that “peripheral diplomacy” will remain the top priority of China’s diplomacy in 2014.

Innovations

Calling 2013 “a successful year of innovation and harvest for China’s diplomacy，” Foreign Minister Wang concluded the conference with an assertion that China will continue to pursue a more active foreign policy in 2014， and will “take new measures and new ideas and present a new image with a more innovative spirit.”

Several ideas and innovations were proposed during the NPC sessions. For example， Major General Gao Guanghui， commander of the PLA’s 16th Group Army and an NPC delegate， called for speeding up legislation over projecting armed forces overseas to “follow international norms” in providing legal grounds for overseas military action.

Just a week prior to this year’s NPC session， the Standing Committee of the NPC made a decision to set December 13 as a national memorial day to commemorate those killed by Japanese soldiers during the Nanjing Massacre， which began in Nanjing on December 13， 1937， in which at least 200，000 people perished according to the International Military Tribunal of the Far East. The decision also named September 3 “Victory Day of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression.”

The decision was made after a heated international propaganda war against Japan following Japanese Prime Minister Sinzo Abe’s controversial visit to the Yasukuni shrine， which commemorates Japanese war dead， including convicted class-A war criminals. Chinese officials readily admit that the decision was a response to “increasing Japanese historical revisionism.” Both initiatives indicate a more proactive stance in their respective areas in the coming year.

Then finally on March 15， one day after the annual NPC session concluded， China’s State media announced that Xi Jinping would take charge in the “leading group for deepening reform of national defense and the military，” a group whose existence was mentioned for the first time by the State media. The report did not elaborate on the relationship between the new group and the Party’s Central Military Commission， on which Xi serves as chairman， making him commander-in-chief of China’s military.

It remains unknown what specific role the group will take in the decision-making process regarding China’s military strategy. But what seems sure is that China will not be abandoning its assertive strategy in the region in the coming year.